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The Japanese government is interested in cooperating with the United States to
develop a limited layered ballistic missile defense system. The main WMD threats Japan faces stem from North
Korea and China. North Korea's test of
a Taepodong-1 missile over Japanese territory in August 1998 played a catalytic
role in bolstering domestic support for a limited missile defense system in Japan. North Korea has already deployed perhaps
100 Nodong missiles that can reach Japan. These missiles are presumably armed
with chemical or biological weapons (CBW), since North Korea is thought to
have only enough nuclear material for one or two warheads. China may have
50 nuclear-armed intermediate-range missiles able to reach Japan. Tokyo is
also interested in missile defenses as a means of strengthening the U.S.-Japan
alliance and fortifying U.S. deterrence against North Korea.
In 1998, Japan agreed to a program of joint research with the United States
on various advanced missile defense technologies. But Japan has not yet made
a decision to proceed from research to development of these technologies.
Because Japan's constitution and political culture place strong restrictions
on its military capabilities, Tokyo has been cautious about embracing the
idea of missile defense. Many Japanese are also reluctant to embrace U.S. BMD plans fully because of concerns about costs, technological effectiveness,
and the negative regional security and arms control implications of such a
system.
Japanese views on U.S. deployment of national missile defenses are mixed.
Some believe that such defenses would strengthen the U.S. defense commitment
to Japan and enhance extended
deterrence. But others believe that U.S. deployment, unless linked to
an agreement with Russia, would undermine U.S. — Russian nuclear stability
and could halt the nuclear arms reduction process.
Although Japan is conducting joint
BMD research with the United States, it
has not committed to deploying such defenses. Japan is not likely to make
such a decision until 2006-2007.
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