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Rapprochement. Following the climatic force posturing at
the end of 2002, India and Pakistan have engaged each other on a
series of initiatives designed to bring peace to the
region. A formal offer of peace to Pakistan from former Indian Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in 2003 ushered in a normalization of
relations between the two archrivals. Furthermore, a series of
high-level summit meetings in 2004 between India and Pakistan have
led to a general cease-fire at the Line of Control in Kashmir.
Nuclear tensions between India and Pakistan can be described as
relatively stable since 1998. When the new Prime Minister of India Manmohan
Singh was voted into office in May 2003, he calmed international
fears about nuclear tensions in South Asia by seeking rapprochement with Pakistan. Singh's government has
made the development of closer ties with Pakistan, including easing
travel restrictions and the continuation of bilateral talks, a
priority for his administration. On September 24, 2004, Singh made
good on his commitment to pursue peace and met with Pakistani President Musharraf in New York. On the table were plans for a proposed gas
pipeline that would go through Pakistan and supply India with
natural gas imported from Iran.
Formal talks on the peace agreement began on November 23, 2004,
when Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was sent to New Delhi to
work on negotiations. It was the first visit to India by a
high-ranking Pakistani official in 13 years. Prior to the
visit by Aziz, India withdrew 3,000 troops from fortified positions
in Kashmir. The move was partly intended as a goodwill gesture to
improve the chances of success at the peace talks. But, it may also
signal that India intends to use its military posture as a
bargaining chip at the negotiating table; Pakistan feels threatened
by India's large conventional forces (400,000 troops)
forward-deployed in Kashmir. During talks in October 2005, India and
Pakistan signed an agreement to provide advance notice about
surface-to-surface ballistic missile tests. However, the agreement
does not cover cruise missiles; Pakistan test-fired its first cruise
missile in August 2005 without alerting India.
Bilateral Confidence-Building Measures.
Following a series of nuclear tests in 1998, India and Pakistan
bilaterally agreed to a moratorium to ban further tests.
Both parties agreed to extend this bilateral arrangement in 2004.
In February 1999, India and Pakistan negotiated the "Lahore
Memorandum of Understanding" (MOU) to institute further
confidence-building measures (CBM) to reduce the risk of a
nuclear war.
As part of the Lahore MOU, both sides
agreed to establish a nuclear hotline between their respective foreign
ministries, similar to the arrangement established between Moscow and Washington,
DC during the Cold War. The hotline linking New Delhi with Islamabad is
intended to prevent miscommunication during a crisis so as to avoid an
escalation to nuclear war. During their 2005 talks, India gave Pakistan a draft
MOU on measures to reduce the risks of accidental or unauthorized
use of each country's nuclear weapons. |
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Further Reading:
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Gabrielle Kohlmeier, Arms Control Today,
"India and Pakistan Hold Nuclear Talks" |
|
U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign
Relations,
Pakistan & India: Steps Toward
Rapprochement |
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Rear Admirals Hasan Ansari & Ravi
Vohra,
"Confidence Building Measures at Sea: Opportunities for India and
Pakistan" |
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Stimson Center,
Confidence-Building Measures in South Asia |
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Gaurav Rajen,
"Nuclear Confidence-Building Measures in South Asia: Managing Nuclear
Operations and Avoiding Inadvertent Nuclear War" |
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Pugwash, Samina Ahmed,
"Workshop Report: Avoiding an India-Pakistan Nuclear Confrontation" |
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CRS, K. Alan Kronstadt,
"India: Chronology of Recent Events" |
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Stimson Center,
Pakistan-India Confidence Building Measures Timeline 1988-Present |
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