Global Security Newswire

Western governments in recently disclosed warnings overstated al-Qaeda's progress in efforts to acquire material for radiological and nuclear weapons, Adnkronos International yesterday quoted a defense specialist as saying (see GSN, Feb. 3).

According to a previous report referring to leaked U.S. diplomatic cables provided by the transparency organization WikiLeaks, security leaders at a 2009 NATO conference informed member countries that al-Qaeda operatives were devising a scheme to plant "dirty radioactive" roadside explosive devices that would potentially target alliance forces in Afghanistan (see GSN, Feb. 2).

"Al-Qaeda has nuclear ambitions, not nuclear capabilities. Since the early 1990s, Osama Bin Laden has been trying to buy nuclear weapons or weapons-grade material, apparently thus far without success," Brian Michael Jenkins, a senior adviser to the president of RAND Corp., said in reference to last week's report by the London Telegraph.

"I know of no evidence to indicate that al-Qaeda has nuclear weapons," said Jenkins, who also minimized British concerns noted in the leaked documents that Pakistani atomic industry insiders could gather enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon by stealing the fuel in small quantities.

Bin Laden "has talked to at least two Pakistani scientists who reportedly told him that he did not have the ingredients for a nuclear bomb," he said.

The potential use of a radiological "dirty bomb" against NATO forces in Afghanistan "makes little tactical sense," Jenkins said. "I remain skeptical."

A radiological "dirty bomb" would use conventional explosives to disperse radioactive material across a large geographical area. The ensuing radioactive contamination could cause years of damage to the environment and public health. Though not nearly as lethal as a nuclear weapon, such makeshift weapons are considered a serious security threat.

The expert added, though, that "fissile material should be better secured and efforts to prevent nuclear trafficking should be continued," he said (Adnkronos International, Feb. 7).