Global Security Newswire

The former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has expressed concern about nuclear activities in Iran and North Korea that could support weapon production, Inter Press Service reported Friday (see GSN, Jan. 26, 2007).

“It is correct to be preoccupied by these two cases,” said Hans Blix, who led the U.N. nuclear watchdog from 1981 to 1997 and served as lead U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq prior to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. “North Korea and Iran ought to be solvable. If they are solvable, I do not see any other acute threat on the horizon.”

The North Koreans “have a perceived need for security, they have the experience of the Korean War in 1950. And the U.S. has held out the promise that with a settlement of the nuclear issue, they would give a guarantee of security and that North Korea's status in the world would be recognized, it would not be pushed aside as a pariah state,” he said.

“These two points have not been seen in negotiations with Iran. The question of Iran's security has not come up, except in a tangential way, nor has the question of diplomatic relations. … The U.S. has acted in the opposite direction [on Iran] with what they did with North Korea. They have said 'first you suspend (uranium) enrichment and thereafter we sit down and talk,’” Blix said.

“I don't think the Iranian nuclear program is at all in response to Israel's” never-acknowledged but widely assumed nuclear arsenal, Blix said. “I'm not saying that Iran is aiming for a nuclear weapon. There are good reasons to suspect that the intention has existed, although I don't think the evidence is conclusive.”

“If Iran goes on and develops a nuclear capability, the domino effects could be significant. The long-term effects in the Far East of North Korea going on could be worse because that is bound to have effects on public opinion in Japan, which has been strongly opposed to nuclear weapons,” he said.

Still, nuclear-armed states appear “increasingly aware that they have a weak moral position by saying that all our nuclear weapons are for keeping order in the world but they are a lethal threat if anyone else has them,” Blix said.

Blix also discussed the threat posed by terrorist individuals and entities.

“The concern about nonstate actors does not justify military rearmament. You do not fight terrorists in laboratories or with aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. It is more of an intelligence and police operation,” he said.

India

Blix said he could see the value of the pending nuclear trade deal between the United States and India, but said “the nonproliferation aspect of the deal is worrisome” (see related GSN story, today).

“India has a shortage of uranium of its own,” he said. “But what they have on their own is not under any verification. Whether or not they will use uranium for a weapons-grade system, we do not know. However, it is possible that Pakistan and China will suspect that they will. That could set off a race in the area and that is highly undesirable” (David Cronin, Inter Press Service/Scottrade, Oct. 3).