Global Security Newswire

U.S. President Barack Obama's pledge to work toward a nuclear weapon-free work marks a step in the right direction for the international community, former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Hans Blix told Foreign Policy this month (see GSN, Oct. 8, 2008).

"President Obama's speech in Prague has the potential of opening a new era in international political and security relations," Blix said (see GSN, March 6). "For years the world was sliding into an ever colder peace, faith in military solutions, and arms buildups. We may now see a development toward sanity, conciliation instead of confrontation, and efforts to move toward a world without nuclear weapons.

"Nuclear weapons are becoming very expensive theoretical gadgets. The world does not need nuclear weapons to fight terrorism. It is also hard to see how the world would have use (for) aircraft carriers in order to fight terrorists; helicopters and drones may be more useful. However, it will take time before nuclear weapons are eliminated. Meanwhile, their existence may have some deterrent effect," he said.

Obama has approached Iran "wisely" by avoiding threats and seeking negotiations on the nuclear standoff, Blix added.

"The consequences of an attack on Iran would very likely be a nuclear-armed Iran," Blix said. "There would be a delay, but nuclear weapons that are hypothetical today would be certain in a few years time. Secondly, an attack would probably have horrible consequences on the supply of oil coming through the Persian Gulf; it would impact the world economy."

While time is limited ahead of the 2010 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference, nuclear-weapon states could take various steps to help curb atomic threats, Blix said.

"The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty needs to be, and quite likely will be, renegotiated before that time. Nuclear weapons could be taken off high alert by unilateral actions," according to Blix. "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization nuclear weapons could be removed from Europe, and Russian tactical nuclear weapons could be moved into central storage deep in Russia.

"The U.S. and Russia could begin bilateral talks about deep reductions in strategic nuclear weapons. The Comprehensive [Nuclear] Test Ban Treaty could be ratified by the United States and several other states. Negotiations about a verified fissile material cutoff treaty should have started," he said (Foreign Policy, April 2009).