Global Security Newswire

The announcement by a senior military official that Russia was considering revising its nuclear weapons doctrine to allow for a pre-emptive nuclear attack against nearby antagonists has experts divided over whether the country truly poses a threat to its neighbors or is merely attempting to mask security vulnerabilities, the Christian Science Monitor reported on Sunday (see GSN, Oct. 14).

Russian national security council chief Nikolai Patrushev told the newspaper Izvestia last month that the circumstances under which the use of nuclear force would be authorized had been reconsidered.

Along with using strategic arms as a defense against an overwhelming conventional strike, the Kremlin might be prepared to launch a nuclear strike against a local nation that it believed had militant aims against Russia.

President Dmitry Medvedev is expected to have the updated military doctrine, which is expected to contain revisions to the country's nuclear policy, by year's end.

Amid the weakened power of its conventional military forces, Russia has come to put greater reliance on its nuclear deterrent. Analysts differ over whether the new nuclear policy means that Moscow is a growing threat to its neighbors or if it is simply a sign that the nation is feeling vulnerable and insecure while its armed forces go through a period of drastic reorganization.

Military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said that Russia was really trying to warn off other global players from intervening in any future regional conflicts that could include a clash with Ukraine or another war with Georgia.

"Nobody is really intending to use nuclear arms, but the point here is to warn other big powers to stay away," Felgenhauer said.

The updated deterrent plan would come alongside Russian effort to establish a leaner, battle-ready army.

"It's natural that we would rely more on our nuclear deterrent during this transition, though it's debatable whether that should be done in the loud fashion that Patrushev did," said Russian Defense Ministry adviser Vitaly Shlykov.

The period of insecurity would not last more than a few years, he argued.

"The reality is changing drastically, and Russia is no longer thinking in terms of large-scale conventional conflicts with NATO ... In future, we envisage only small, regional wars" (Fred Weir, Christian Science Monitor, Nov. 15).