Global Security Newswire

Iran indicated Saturday that it intends to further refine low-enriched uranium from its stockpile if world powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency do not agree in upcoming talks to supply the nation with higher-enriched material needed to operate a research reactor in Tehran, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 9).

Earlier this month, the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany tentatively agreed to help Iran acquire material for the reactor, which would produce medical isotopes under international supervision (see GSN, Oct. 2). The possibility that Tehran could send much of its uranium abroad for enrichment was seen as a potential breakthrough by the United States and its Western allies, which have expressed concern that Iran could produce enough material for a nuclear weapon if it continued refining low-enriched uranium from its existing stockpile.

Representatives from Iran and the world powers are expected to discuss details of the arrangement Oct. 19 in Vienna.

"The talks will be a test of the sincerity of those countries," Iranian Atomic Energy Organization spokesman Ali Sharisdian said. "Should talks fail or sellers refuse to provide Iran with its required fuel, Iran will enrich uranium to the 20 percent level needed itself," he said.

Iran now enriches its uranium to levels no higher than 5 percent; to power a bomb, the nation would have to produce material with an enrichment level around 90 percent.

Sharisdian added that his nation would prefer to acquire uranium for the reactor from other nations rather than generating the material indigenously (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press I/Google News, Oct. 11).

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today in an in effort to secure Kremlin backing for new economic penalties against Iran if concerns about the nation's nuclear program go unresolved, Reuters reported.

"(Clinton) will want to speak to Foreign Minister Lavrov and President [Dmitry] Medvedev about what specific forms of pressure Russia would be prepared to join us and our other allies in if Iran fails to live up to its obligations," a high-level State Department official said ahead of the meeting (Jeff Mason, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Oct. 13).

Lavrov, though, said after the talks that it would be unfruitful to threaten Tehran with additional economic pressure, the Associated Press reported. The U.N. Security Council to date has approved three rounds of sanctions against the Middle Eastern state (Matthew Lee, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Oct. 13).

Clinton also said that Iranian intransigence in the nuclear dispute did not mean that the time had come for another round of new penalties, Agence France-Presse reported.

"We are not at that point yet," she said today, adding that "Russia has been extremely cooperative in the work we have done together" (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Oct. 13).

Lavrov added: "We are not asking for anything from each other in the Iran issue because it would be ridiculous to ask for anything in an issue on which our positions coincide," the Xinhua News Agency reported (Xinhua News Agency, Oct. 13).

"There is still no certainty" that Russia would back new punitive measures against Iran, said Maria Lipman, an expert with the Moscow Carnegie Center. Russia supported previous sanctions resolutions, but has opposed some of the tougher penalties proposed by Western powers.

"Repeatedly, Russia has been about, 'Let's give them another chance, let's make sure that indeed Iran is not delivering on its promises,'" Lipman told AP.

Recent statements from Moscow suggest that the Kremlin is not yet ready to sign onto assertive action against Tehran, she said: "Things do not look as good today as they did a week ago" (Matthew Lee, Associated Press III/Yahoo!News, Oct. 13).

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom today announced new sanctions on an Iranian bank and a shipping firm, both of which are said to have supported Tehran's nuclear and missile activities.

Iran's Bank Mellat was targeted because it had aided a group "connected to Iran's proliferation-sensitive activities" and had been "involved in transactions related to financing Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program," said British Treasury Minister Sarah McCarthy-Fry.

Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines had "transported goods for both Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs," she said.

"Financial and credit institutions will no longer be able to enter into new transactions or business relationships with these entities, nor to continue with existing transactions or business relationships unless they are licensed by HM Treasury" the official added in a press release (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, Oct. 12).

A military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could involve targeting numerous research sites, production centers and storage areas with dozens of missiles as well as the possible use of special operations forces, the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday.

"If you're going to have an effective campaign to go in and throw (Iran's nuclear program) back years, you're talking about a massive, massive effort," said one former U.S. high-level intelligence official familiar with planning for military strikes on Iran.

The United States is likely to take military action "if we observe that [the Iranians] are producing highly enriched uranium or ... were returning to the design and manufacture of actual weapons," said Leonard Spector, head of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

"[Special operations forces] would be safe for a while. They could assure accurate target acquisition"

and place explosive charges at entryways to hardened nuclear facilities, a former defense official added (Miller/Barnes, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 12).

A senior Iranian official, though, said the United States appears serious about pursuing dialogue in the nuclear dispute, AFP reported today.

"Everyone saw that the Americans showed more positive interest to engage and participate during the talks (in Geneva). That was evident and we hope that we continue on the same path," said Rahim Mashaie, chief of staff to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"The engagement of the U.S. in the negotiation can be interpreted as a positive development, but we have to see what happens in the next negotiations and how serious the Americans are," he said (Jay Deshmukh, Agence France-Presse III/Google News, Oct. 13).

One independent expert questioned whether providing Iran with reactor fuel would significantly slow the nation's progress toward a nuclear-weapon capability, the Washington Post reported.

"You aren't buying much more time. You are bailing water out of a sinking ship rather than plugging a hole," said Henry Sokolski, head of the Washington-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.

A high-level administration official defended the potential deal.

"This is a real confidence-building measure. If they say they need it for medical purposes, we are offering it to them. If they accept it, it is LEU [low-enriched uranium] coming out. If they reject it, it is another data point that says, 'Look, these guys are not serious,'" the official said (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Oct. 11).

Elsewhere, Venezuela indicated Friday that it is receiving Iranian assistance in locating uranium deposits within its borders, RIA Novosti reported.

Venezuela would use the material in a nuclear energy program, said Venezuelan Science and Technology Minister Jesse Chacon (RIA Novosti, Oct. 10).