Global Security Newswire

Israel will not tolerate any transfer of Syrian chemical weapons to the militant organization Hezbollah in Lebanon, an unidentified Israeli defense official last week said (see GSN, Jan. 18).

In an interview with the Israel Hayom newspaper, the official said Jerusalem would view the provision of chemical warfare materials to elements within Lebanon as a major provocation by Beirut, the London Telegraph reported on Tuesday.

Violence inside Syria has ratcheted up again as government forces seek to retake control of certain areas from those opposed to the Assad regime. The government is still understood to control the nation's chemical weapons sites, but Israeli intelligence officials see an increasing likelihood that dictator Bashar Assad will be toppled. This has caused a significant amount of worry in Jerusalem as officials wonder what will happen to Syria's WMD arsenals, which are understood to include ballistic missiles and a substantial stockpile of chemical arms that includes nerve and blister agents. Less is known about the nation's biological weapon capabilities.

In the event of a power vacuum in Syria, Israel sees a heightened likelihood of weapons proliferation to Hezbollah operatives or other regional militant groups. Israeli and U.S. officials for several years have accused Damascus of providing ballistic missiles to Hezbollah (see GSN, Dec. 7, 2010; Phoebe Greenwood, London Telegraph, Feb. 7).

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak last week told a policy conference that  "it is difficult to predict exactly what will happen in Syria. We're watching for an attempt to pass advanced weapons systems that could edge the delicate balance in Lebanon to Hezbollah," Haaretz reported.

Israel's soon-to-be-installed new air force head, Maj. Gen. Amir Eshal said in January it is only a matter of time before Assad is toppled. "The question is when, not if. And the big question is what will happen the following day."

Jerusalem's chief worry right now is what will happen to the Assad regime's biological and chemical warfare materials, he said.

"What has been passed on to Hezbollah so far? What will be passed on in the future?," Eshal said. "What will be divided between the two factions in Syria?" (Amos Harel, Haaretz, Feb. 7).