Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — In a marked shift from previous assessments, the CIA said in a report released today that it is monitoring Syrian nuclear intentions with “growing concern” (see GSN, Nov. 5)

The unclassified semiannual report, covering a period from Jan. 1 to June 30 of this year, assesses the WMD and ballistic missile threat posed by a number of countries of U.S. concern, including Iran and North Korea. The report also outlines the proliferation activities of several supplier countries, such as China and Russia.

In its report, the CIA said that it is monitoring Syrian nuclear activities with increased concern, noting continued Syrian-Russian agreements on nuclear cooperation and Damascus’s expanded access to foreign nuclear-related expertise. Previous agency assessments of Syrian nuclear weapons efforts, however, do not describe U.S. interest in Syrian nuclear activities in such ominous language.

As for other Syrian weapons issues, the CIA says that Syria continued during the first half of this year to seek foreign assistance to develop a solid-propellant rocket motor development and production capability. Syria has also relied on other nations, primarily North Korea, for assistance with its liquid-propelled missile program, the report says. 

Concerning biological and chemical weapons, the report says that it is “highly probable” that Syria has continued to work to develop an offensive biological weapons capability and that Syria continues to seek foreign assistance and equipment for its chemical weapons program.

Syria’s alleged WMD activities have come under increased attention from both the Bush administration and the U.S. Congress. In a speech last month in London, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton noted U.S. concerns over Syrian nuclear activities, especially concerning Syrian efforts to acquire nuclear-related dual-use technologies.

Bolton also described Syria’s chemical weapons program as “one of the most advanced Arab state chemical weapons capabilities.”

According to recent reports, however, Bolton has come under criticism for allegedly exaggerating the WMD threat posed by some countries of concern, including Syria (see GSN, Nov. 3).

In Congress, the U.S. House of Representatives last month overwhelmingly approved the Syrian Accountability Act, which would require the president to impose new rounds of economic sanctions against Damascus if its fails to end its WMD activities. The Senate is expected to soon approve the bill, which has received growing White House support.

In another shift from previous assessments, today’s CIA report briefly notes the continued effort by coalition forces in Iraq to search for evidence of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s alleged WMD and ballistic missile efforts (see GSN, Nov. 10). Previous agency assessments conducted last year, however, included a number of claims concerning Iraqi WMD efforts that have since been disputed, such as allegations that Iraq acquired thousands of high-strength aluminum tubes for use in uranium enrichment activities and that Iraq retained a “small force” of prohibited Scud-type missiles.

Today’s report also appeared to indicate reduced U.S. concerns surrounding Sudan’s biological and chemical weapons efforts, saying “the U.S. is working with Sudan to reconcile past concerns about its attempts to seek [chemical weapons] capabilities from abroad.” Previously, the agency said that Sudan has aspired to develop chemical weapons program and that it possibly was “interested” in developing a biological weapons program.

Iran

The CIA continued to warn today of the threat posed by suspected Iranian and North Korean efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. The report says the agency “remains convinced” that Iran pursued during the first half of this year a “clandestine nuclear weapons program,” noting concerns over Tehran’s effort to develop enrichment technologies for weapons purposes and efforts to acquire weapon-grade material using both highly enriched uranium and low burn-up plutonium (see related GSN story, today).

Reuters reported today, however, that the International Atomic Energy Agency has circulated a report indicating the lack of evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program.

“To date there is no evidence that (Iran’s) previously undeclared nuclear material and activities … were related to a nuclear weapons program,” Reuters quoted the IAEA report as saying. “However, given Iran’s past pattern of concealment, it will take some time before the agency is able to conclude that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes,” it says.

The CIA report also says that Iran has continued to engage in missile-related cooperation with entities in the former Soviet Union, China and North Korea with the aim of developing a self-sufficient missile production capability. While the report says Iran is “also pursuing longer-range ballistic missiles,” Iranian officials have recently said they have no plans to develop a longer-range variant of the Shahab missile (see GSN, Nov. 10).

In addition, during the first half of 2003 Iran sought production technology and expertise from Chinese entities with the aim of developing an indigenous nerve agent production capability, the report says. It also says that Iran has continued to seek dual-use biological equipment, adding that while such equipment may have legitimate uses, it also could aid Tehran’s biological weapons program.

North Korea

The CIA said in its report that it is continuing to monitor and assess North Korea’s nuclear weapons efforts. The report warns that Pyongyang’s nuclear-capable Taepodong 2 ballistic missile, which is estimated to be able to hit targets within the United States, “may be ready for flight testing” (see GSN, Sept. 11)

In addition, North Korea is “nearly self-sufficient” in developing and producing ballistic missiles, and “has demonstrated a willingness” to transfer both missile technologies and complete systems to other countries, the report says. It also says that during the first half of this year, Pyongyang continued to obtain dual-use chemicals that could be used for weapons purposes and that it maintain a biological weapons production capability.

Suppliers

In addition to describing the WMD threat posed by countries of concern, the CIA in today’s report also examined countries that could be potential suppliers of WMD programs — listing China, North Korea and Russia as “key suppliers.”

While praising China’s growing commitment over the past several years to nonproliferation, the report says the “proliferation behavior of some Chinese companies remains of great concern.” It notes that during the first half of 2003, Chinese entities engaged in ballistic missile-related projects with Iran and Pakistan. Over the past year, the United States has sanctioned a number of Chinese companies, in some cases multiple times, for alleged missile-related transfers (see GSN, Oct. 30).

The CIA report also says that there is evidence that Chinese entities provided dual-use chemical weapons-related production equipment and technology to Iran during the first half of 2003.

With regard to Russia, the report describes “cash-strapped” industries, such as those in the aerospace, chemical, defense and nuclear fields, as “eager to raise funds via exports and transfers” (see GSN, Nov. 3). It also warns that Russian universities and scientific institutes “showed a willingness” to raise funds by providing WMD- and missile-related teaching to foreign students.

During the first half of 2003, Russian entities continued to engage in missile-related assistance to countries such as China, India and Iran, the report says. It also says that Russian entities have remained a “key source” of dual-use materials, equipment and training for countries seeking to develop biological and chemical weapons.

In addition, today’s CIA report also notes North Korean threats to export nuclear weapons and Pyongyang’s continued missile-related exports to the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa. Such exports during the first half of this year were a major source of hard currency for Pyongyang, which in turn was used to support continued North Korean missile programs, the report says.