Global Security Newswire

Nations with nuclear arms are expected to be called on to reduce their strategic arsenals and to adopt a "no first use" stance in a new report slated for release tomorrow in Tokyo, the Australian Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 20).

The report by the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament is expected to urge a worldwide nuclear arms rollback to 2,000 weapons, roughly 10 percent of today's stockpile, by 2025. The commission is also predicted to call on nations to assume a "no first use" policy by that year.

To encourage states to agree to only fire their nuclear weapons if attacked, the report is thought to recommend that all nuclear arms be removed from high-alert status so that they could not be quickly launched.

The commission is also expected to call for universal participation in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and to encourage a new agreement that would outlaw the production of any highly enriched uranium and plutonium for weapons purposes (see related GSN story, today).

The report's weapons reduction goal of 2,000 is reportedly watered down from an earlier recommendation of 1,000. Its scheduled release is hoped to allow time for the recommendations to influence world leaders going into the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty's five-year review conference in May.

Activist David Noonan said the report would do little to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

"Other countries will see that America and other states are retaining the military, political and strategic advantage that they see in nuclear weapons," he said (Sandra O'Malley, Australian Associated Press/Sydney Morning Herald, Dec. 15).

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, whose nations established the panel, are likely to release the report together, the Melbourne Age reported.

The commission was comprised of one-time defense, political and diplomatic officials and included representation from the nuclear-armed states of China, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States (Mark Davis, The Age, Dec. 14).

Meanwhile, an Australian think tank that receives funding from Canberra said the emergence of a new nuclear-weapon state in Asia or the declining confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella could lead Australia to reconsider pursuing a strategic deterrent of its own, the Australian reported today.

Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Rod Lyons said the country might wish to pursue a policy of "nuclear hedging" regarding its strategic weapon aims.

In 1969, then-Australian Prime Minister John Gorton supported efforts by the nation's Atomic Energy Commission to build a reactor with the ability to produce weapon-grade plutonium. However, the subsequent prime minister, Billy McMahon, ended the effort in 1971 and Australia went on to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1973.

"Nuclear hedging" could involve preparing Australia to quickly produce a strategic capability if it chose to do so, Lyons indicated.

"Nuclear hedging is a strategy with remarkably long legs -- it can be pursued at a modest tempo over decades," he said.

A Rudd administration spokesman said: "Australia is a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and as such has committed not to acquire nuclear weapons" (Christian Kerr, Australian, Dec. 14).