Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The autocratic nature of Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi’s regime could jeopardize his country’s commitment to its pledge to fully dismantle and renounce weapons of mass destruction, experts said yesterday (see GSN, March 10).

“We cannot be sure what Libya will do because all decisions in Libya are made by one erratic man, Muammar Qadhafi. When Qadhafi’s mood changes, Libya’s policies can switch overnight, for the simple reason that he holds all power in his hands. And so long as he alone determines what are Libya’s policies, we cannot be certain whether he will stick with his renunciation of WMD or change his mind tomorrow,” analyst Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told the House International Relations Committee.

Clawson, along with Ray Takeyh of the National Defense University, warned the committee that the United States could not rely solely on Qadhafi’s word for assurance that Libya has fully abandoned its WMD aims and long history of support for terrorism. While Libya may dismantle the physical aspects of its WMD programs, it will retain scientists and engineers who have both WMD-related expertise and knowledge of how to acquire WMD materials on the international black market, Clawson said.

“We simply don’t have a very good idea about how quickly these things can be reconstituted,” he said.

To help keep Libya on track, the United States should implement a “process of gradual, incremental normalization” as Libya continues with its WMD dismantlement efforts, Takeyh said. Such a process, he said, “is the best manner of approaching a leader whose dramatic shifts often confound both his supporters and his critics.”

Going farther, Clawson said the United States should seek political reform in Libya, including broader public participation.

“The only way that we can be sure that this WMD deal sticks is if Libya engages in political reform. To formulate the problem this way is to understand that political reform in Libya is of geostrategic interest to the United States,” Clawson said.

U.S. officials yesterday, though, denied that Libya could easily relaunch its WMD programs at a later date. Such concerns led the United States to remove “the most proliferation-sensitive equipment” from Libya first, said Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance Paula DeSutter. She also told the committee that inspectors from both the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, along with a U.S. verification mechanism, would be in Libya to monitor Tripoli’s activities.

“I think we can feel fairly confident that it would be difficult for them to get back to where they were even ... in December … in any time frame that we wouldn’t be able to detect. The reason for that is because there was a strategic decision to eliminate and to rapidly fulfill that elimination commitment,” DeSutter said. “This is a huge achievement that they have undertaken. And I think it won’t be readily reversed. I can’t speak to the terrorism, but in the WMD front I think we have crossed a major red line,” she added.

In their testimony, U.S. officials praised the progress made in the dismantlement of Libya’s WMD programs. They cited accomplishments achieved over the past three months such as the dismantlement of Libya’s nuclear weapons program, the surrender of Scud C ballistic missiles and the full declaration of Tripoli’s chemical weapons program, including the destruction of thousands of chemical munitions.

“More remains to be done, but Libya has made great strides in voluntarily eliminating its WMD programs,” said Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns.

DeSutter also praised the role of U.S. intelligence, which has been the subject of intense criticism for its poor assessment of prewar Iraq’s WMD capabilities, in the Libyan dismantlement effort.

“In terms of being able to ask the right questions of the Libyans, being able to understand the goals of the programs and in understanding their procurement network, we were well served by the intelligence community. Without their excellent work, I do not think that we would be having the success that we’re having today in Libya,” she said.

Burns said that he plans to meet with Libyan officials later this month to discuss the remaining sanctions in place against Tripoli and the “importance of continued Libyan performance” if those sanctions are to be lifted. He also said that he would reiterate the need for Libya to formally renounce its support for terrorism and to break any “residual ties” it may have with terrorist organizations.

“Our policy toward Libya is performance-driven and will not be steered by artificial deadlines,” Burns said.