Global Security Newswire

The United States is likely to face new challenges from terrorists, rival countries and partner states before U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's takes office in January, the London Telegraph reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 6).

Al-Qaeda could launch a major strike on the United States in an attempt to exploit Washington's change in leadership, but it is uncertain whether the terror organization has maintained the capability of coordinating a large assault, according to the Telegraph (see GSN, Oct. 27).

In a move probably timed to coincide with Obama's victory at the polls, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced plans to counter a European missile shield by placing short-range missiles near the borders of Poland and Lithuania (see GSN, Nov. 6).

France has moved to initiate discussions of a new cooperation deal between Russia and the European Union, which Paris currently presides over. The United States cannot effectively protest the negotiations during the presidential handover, potentially eliminating its opportunity to diplomatically retaliate against Russia over its conflict with Georgia this summer, according to the Telegraph.

Washington's ability to penalize Iran would also be hampered if the Middle Eastern state revealed new centrifuge installations at its Natanz enrichment facility during the presidential transition, according to the Telegraph report. Iran says the machines are only intended to produce nuclear power plant fuel, but the United States is concerned that Tehran could use them to produce a nuclear bomb ingredient (see related GSN story, today).

The presidential changeover could also limit U.S. options if North Korea refused to meet its obligations under a six-nation denuclearization deal. Reports that North Korea's leader is experiencing health problems have bolstered concerns about possible political instability in Pyongyang (see related GSN story, today; David Blair, London Telegraph, Nov. 6).

Obama must also balance U.S. preparations for potential conflict with Iran or North Korea and the nation's plans to counter larger powers such as Russia and China, Reuters reported.

"If the incoming administration is focused on China and Russia, that will require fundamentally different investments [in defense technology] than counterinsurgencies," said Teal Group analyst Philip Finnegan.

Obama's administration must also decide whether to move forward with the planned deployment of missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic (Jim Wolf, Reuters, Nov. 6).