Global Security Newswire

President Obama on Monday ordered a freeze on any Iranian government and central bank holdings under U.S. jurisdiction in a step to implement punitive measures enacted against the Middle Eastern state late last year over its possible nuclear-weapon activities, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 3; Julie Pace, Associated Press I/Google News, Jan. 6).

"Iran now faces an unprecedented level of pressure due to intensified sanctions applied by the United States and complementary actions by many others around the world," the Treasury Department said in an accompanying statement. "The new [executive order] issued today re-emphasizes this administration’s message to the government of Iran -- it will face ever-increasing economic and diplomatic pressure until it addresses the international community’s well-founded and well-documented concerns regarding the nature of its nuclear program" (U.S. Treasury Department release, Jan. 6).

The United States has a "very good estimate" of when Iran could complete development of a nuclear weapon, AP quoted Obama as saying on Monday.

"Do we know all of the dynamics inside of Iran? Absolutely not," he said in an interview broadcast on NBC's "Today" show. "Iran itself is a lot more divided now than it was. Knowing who is making decisions at any given time inside of Iran is tough."

A negotiated resolution to the nuclear dispute remains possible, but the United States is well prepared for a number of contingencies, the U.S. president said.

"We are prepared to exercise these options should they arise," he said (Julie Pace, Associated Press II/Google News, Feb. 6).

The administration would do "do everything we can” to avert the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran, Obama said on Sunday in remarks reported by the Wall Street Journal.

“I don’t think that Israel has made a decision on what they need to do. I think they, like us, believe that Iran has to stand down on its nuclear weapons program,” he told NBC. Jerusalem in past weeks has intensified suggestions it might employ armed force to curb the Iranian atomic efforts, which Tehran insists are strictly peaceful in nature.

“Our goal is to resolve this issue diplomatically, that would be preferable,” Obama said. “We’re not going to take any options off the table though. Obviously any kind of additional military activity inside the Gulf is disruptive and has a big effect on us. It could have a big effect on oil prices" (Wall Street Journal I, Feb. 5).

"We've still got troops in Afghanistan, which borders Iran. And so our preferred solution here is diplomatic," Reuters quoted him as saying in the Sunday interview.

"My No. 1 priority continues to be the security of the United States, but also the security of Israel, and we are going to make sure that we work in lockstep as we proceed to try to solve this, hopefully diplomatically," he added (MacInnis/Hafezi, Reuters I, Feb. 5).

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta minimized news accounts that he believes Israel might attack Iran within months, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported last week (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Feb. 3).

The international community has adopted "very tough" penalties against the Middle Eastern state, Agence France-Presse quoted him as saying  on Friday.

"[We have] a tremendous amount of pressure on Iran to isolate Iran from the rest of the world," he said. "We've got to continue that kind of pressure."

"My view is that right now the most important thing is to keep the international community unified in keeping that pressure on to try to convince Iran that they shouldn't develop a nuclear weapon," the Pentagon chief said. "If they don't, we have all options on the table" (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Feb. 3).

It was uncertain if Israeli threats of armed force against Iran's atomic program are sincere or merely intended to prompt further economic isolation of Jerusalem's Persian Gulf rival, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Israeli attacks on atomic assets in Iraq and Syria were not preceded by extensive warnings on the matter, said observers who doubt Israel's willingness to strike Iran.

"Israel has shot itself in its own feet by exaggerating the Iranian threat," said Shahram Chubin, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Edmund Sanders, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 6).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pressed top Israeli government personnel to curb their public references to a potential strike against Iran's nuclear operations, Reuters quoted a Monday report by an Israeli newspaper as saying.

“Stop blabbing, already,” Netanyahu said in comments reported by Maariv. “This chit-chat causes huge damage, puts Israel on the front line, and damages sanctions” enacted by the United States and Europe (Reuters II/National Post, Feb. 6).

Meanwhile, Iran's top diplomat on Sunday said the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany are not the appropriate group for resolving the nuclear standoff, the Xinhua News Agency reported. The six powers convened talks with Tehran on two separate occasions in December 2010 and January 2011, but neither gathering yielded clear progress toward resolving the dispute (see GSN, Jan. 24, 2011).

"[The P-5+1] is not the source of arbitration on Iran's nuclear activities and only International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the major source of arbitration in this regard," Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said (Xinhua News Agency, Feb. 6).

A highly classified Canadian intelligence analysis states Iran is moving to acquire a nuclear-weapon capacity, the National Post reported on Friday.

Iran's atomic activities are among “the most significant, urgent threats of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation today,” the document states. “The fact that Iran has engaged in activities related to nuclear weaponization suggests that it is, at a minimum, seeking to acquire the capacity to produce such a weapon" (Stewart Bell, National Post, Feb. 3).

Iran's envoy to France on Friday said his nation has no plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Journal reported. Officials and lawmakers in Tehran previously threatened to close the waterway, a key channel for the shipment of Middle Eastern petroleum, in retaliation to an embargo on oil exports.

"We don't have the intention to close the Strait of Hormuz. ...That's our official position," Ambassador Ali Ahani said.

"We will continue our cooperation with the [International Atomic Energy Agency]," he said, adding Tehran "is ready to provide assurances" that its atomic activities would retain their strictly peaceful character. A high-level IAEA delegation traveled to Iran last week in an effort to resolve points of dispute over the country's past nuclear work; the U.N. nuclear watchdog in November noted "serious concerns" that the Persian Gulf regional power was seeking a nuclear-weapon capacity (see GSN, Nov. 9, 2011).

"We haven't reached a compromise because there is no political will to close this file" among Western powers, Ahani said. "We have solid information proving political pressure has played out in (the November) report."

Penalties targeting Tehran "will aggravate tensions in the region," not help to prevent armed conflict, he said.

"There is political pressure on Arab states" to increase petroleum output to help compensate for additional demand created by an embargo on Iranian exports, he said. Saudi Arabia has offered to take the step, but Ahani said the move would not benefit Riyadh in the long run (Benoit Faucon, Wall Street Journal II, Feb. 5).

Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi on Saturday urged the 27-nation European Union to reconsider plans to impose an embargo on Iranian oil. The bloc last month finalized a six-month time line for prohibiting petroleum purchases from Iran, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Tehran is certain to bar petroleum sales to specific European nations, Qasemi said, giving no further details.

The official on Saturday called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to avoid increasing oil supplies in the event of an international ban on Iranian output (Xinhua News Agency I, Feb. 4).

Norway on Friday indicated it would tighten punitive measures against Iran in cooperation with EU member states (Xinhua News Agency II, Feb. 6).

The nuclear standoff is one planned topic for talks planned this week between Brazilian leaders and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, AFP reported on Friday (Agence France-Presse II/Khaleej Times, Feb. 4).

Meanwhile, an analyst with an Iranian legislative think tank on Sunday called on his country in 2012 to fire missiles on Israel's Dimona atomic site and suspected Israeli long-range missile facilities, the Washington Times reported (Abraham Rabinovich, Washington Times, Feb. 5).

Iranian Revolutionary Guard official Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, though, said Tehran would under no circumstances begin a military conflict with another country, Iran's Press TV reported (Press TV, Feb. 5).

Iran could attack any nation being used as a start point for strikes against Iranian locations, Iran's Fars News Agency quoted Gen. Hossein Salami, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, as saying on Sunday (Fars News Agency, Feb. 6).