Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The United States warned rivals India and Pakistan yesterday against entering into an “arms race” following reported comments by Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf that his country plans to soon conduct an “important” missile test (see GSN, July 1).

“On the issue of missile tests, we clearly remain deeply concerned about the dangers that continue to be posed by both nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in South Asia. We continue to urge Pakistan and India to take steps to prevent an arms race and to guard against possible nuclear use,” U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said yesterday.

Citing Pakistani media sources, Agence France-Presse yesterday quoted Musharraf as saying earlier this week that Pakistan plans to conduct an “extremely important substantive test” of a missile within the next two months. While Musharraf did not provide any details, according to AFP, some Pakistani newspapers indicated that the test would probably involve a long-range ballistic missile. Some experts have also speculated that the test may involve a solid-fueled missile.

A defense official in the Pakistani Embassy in Washington said today that the embassy has received no official information on the planned test, adding that he learned of Musharraf’s comments by television.

Pakistan might be planning to use the test to demonstrate that it has achieved a new technological breakthrough, said Charles Pena, director of Defense Policy Studies at the CATO Institute in Washington. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington, said today that if Pakistan’s missile test demonstrated a more-advanced system, it could pressure the new Indian government to accelerate its own ballistic missile development efforts.

The Indian Embassy in Washington refused to comment on the issue today.

Pakistan since late May has conducted two successful tests of its Hatf 5 nuclear-capable missile, which has a range of 1,500 kilometers. Media reports have also indicated that Pakistan would test its long-range Ghauri 3 nuclear-capable missile, which has a range of 3,000 kilometers, but no such test has yet occurred.

Musharraf’s reported comments have not resulted in a “marked change” in the U.S. level of concern regarding ballistic missiles in the South Asia, Ereli said. “It is an issue that we continue to raise with both countries,” he added.

The United States needs to be “more attentive” to Indian and Pakistani missile tests, which demonstrate that the two countries are improving their ability to use nuclear weapons, Kimball said, adding that the Bush administration needed to do more than “turn the other cheek” when it comes to South Asian missile tests.

While it may be desirable to prevent an arms race in South Asia, Pena said, the United States needs to prioritize its nonproliferation efforts. “In the grand scheme of things,” he said, developments in Iran and North Korea pose more of a direct threat to the United States than do ballistic missiles in Pakistan and India.

Pakistan has recently worked with India to reduce the risk that missile tests may inadvertently lead to military conflict. During talks held earlier this week in New Delhi, the two countries agreed to develop a formal system of advance notification for missile tests. Such a formal system would increase the confidence the two countries place in the information they receive as opposed to the informal structure used in the past, experts said (see GSN, June 28).

Ereli yesterday praised the results of India and Pakistan’s recent talks, which the two countries held as part of a peace dialogue announced early this year.

“We are encouraged that India and Pakistan have just agreed to work toward a number of measures to reduce risks in the region, including a more advanced agreement on notification of missile tests,” he said.

Experts differed over whether Pakistan’s reported missile test plans clashed with the efforts between Islamabad and New Delhi to reduce tensions and resolve disputes. Kimball said that Musharraf’s comments appeared to be “contradictory” to the spirit of the recent Indian-Pakistani talks. 

Pena argued, though, that Musharraf’s comments were more typical of the cyclical nature of the relations between India and Pakistan. As an example, he cited the two countries’ long-standing dispute over the region of Kashmir, which has involved cycles of violence, followed by heated rhetoric by both sides and then a cooling of tensions.