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The Changing Chemical Weapons Threat
A
number of factors have increased the ability of terrorist groups, and
possibly even individuals, to carry out a chemical weapons attack:
- Proliferation
of Chemical Weapons Knowledge:
Formulas for toxic chemicals have
always been known within the scientific community, but specific
details for developing and producing chemical warfare agents and
converting them into weapons have become more widely accessible.
Aum Shinrikyo obtained a
standard recipe for
sarin nerve agent from
a Russian source and managed to produce significant amounts of this
deadly material.
- Dual-Use
Nature of Chemical Weapons Precursors:
Some
basic ingredients of chemical weapons are available for purchase
because of their dual-use nature—these chemicals have peaceful,
commercial uses as well as potentially dangerous ones. Although
national export controls on chemical weapons precursors have been
harmonized by the Australia Group (an informal coordinating body
made up of 40 exporting countries and the European Commission),
trade in other relevant chemicals is still allowed. Also, several
states that trade in dual-use chemicals do not belong to the
Australia Group. As a result, it is still relatively easy in many
places to purchase toxic chemicals or their precursors.
- Poor Security
of Chemical Weapons Materials:
Terrorists could potentially steal chemical materials and/or weapons
from countries with poorly secured storage facilities. Tens of
thousands of metric tons of Soviet CW agents are stored in depots on
the territory of Russia and are gradually being destroyed. Physical
security and accounting at the Russian depots is inadequate,
however. Lapses in discipline and the low morale of underpaid guards
have created conditions in which small amounts of chemical agents
could be smuggled out and sold to terrorists. While a few artillery
shells filled with sarin would be insufficient for military
purposes, they would be suitable for a terrorist attack.
- Advanced
Chemical Technologies:
Terrorist groups can exploit certain advanced technologies to
develop or acquire chemical weapons, for example, using the Internet
to order precursor chemicals or to exchange recipes for making
chemical weapons. In addition, the commercial availability of
chemical manufacturing equipment makes it possible for terrorists to
produce CW agents in small, secret facilities.
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