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Illicit Trafficking of WMD Materials

In 2000, there were more than 500 incidents of illegal transportation of nuclear and radioactive materials across the Russian state border. Nikolay Kravchenko, head of the Russian Federation State Customs Committee, made this announcement at a conference held by the International Atomic Energy Agency in St. Petersburg in April 2001.

Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS 1256 GMT, 2 April 2001, FBIS CEP20010402000186.

In July 2001, French police arrested a man in Paris carrying five grams of enriched uranium.

Source: Tanguy Berthemet and Michele Bietry, “Five Grams HEU Seized in Paris,” Le Figaro (Paris), 23 July 2001.

In July 2001, German police arrested a worker who apparently managed to steal plutonium from a nuclear reprocessing plant.

Source: BBC News (online), “Germany Investigates Plutonium Theft,” 16 July 2001.

Between January and March 2001, there were 20 cases of illicit trafficking in radioactive materials in Germany, Romania, South Africa, and Mexico.

Source: “Weapons-Grade Uranium Seized,” The Guardian, 25 July 2001.

The largest seizure of weapons-usable materials from nuclear facilities in the former Soviet Union occurred in 1994 when 2.7 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) were found in the Czech Republic. Approximately 360 grams of plutonium were also seized in Germany that year.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.



 

Post-Cold War Numbers

US Statistics

It is estimated that the United States has more than 7,200 nuclear warheads deployed in its strategic forces, over 1,600 in its non-strategic forces, and over 10,000 in stockpile.  US strategic forces include 601 ICBMs, 448 SLBMs, and 295 nuclear bombers.

Sources: Arms Control Association, 05 May 2001; NRDC Nuclear Notebook, May/June 2001.

One Trident submarine can carry up to 192 nuclear warheads.

Source: Congressional Budget Office, Budget Options, February 2001.

Today there are 2,500 nuclear targets in the US National Target Base; 2,000 of these are in Russia, 300-400 in China, and 100-200 located elsewhere.

Source: Matthew G. McKinzie et al. (National Research Defense Council), The US Nuclear War Plan: A Time for Change, June 2001.

The United States is purchasing 500 metric tons of highly enriched uranium (HEU) derived from disassembled Russian warheads. The HEU will be blended down into low-enriched uranium for use in nuclear power reactors. Shipments to the United States began in 1993 and will continue until 2013.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

US SIOP-62 (Single Integrated Operational Plan of 1962) called for a single plan under which the United States would launch all its strategic nuclear weapons upon initiation of war with the USSR. The single target list included military and industrial targets, many of which were against Soviet, Chinese, and satellite cities. Estimated fatalities were 360 to 525 million people.

Source: Matthew G. McKinzie et al. (National Research Defense Council), The US Nuclear War Plan: A Time for Change, June 2001.

 

Russia and Former Soviet Republics

It is estimated that Russia has more than 6,000 nuclear warheads deployed in its strategic forces, over 3,600 in its non-strategic forces, and 12,000 in stockpile.  Russian strategic forces include 750 ICBMs, 436 SLBMs, and 80 nuclear bombers.

Sources: Arms Control Association, 05 May 2001; NRDC Nuclear Notebook, May/June 2001; NRDC Nuclear Notebook, September 1995.

Russia has enough fissile material to produce up to 80,000 nuclear weapons; much of this material is held in insecure locations.

Source: Howard Baker and Lloyd Cutler, “A Report Card on the Department of Energy’s Nonproliferation Programs with Russia,” 10 January 2001.

Russia’s weapons scientists are sought after by terrorists, yet Russia is no longer able to provide for all of its weapons scientists and technicians. Consider the following statistics:

More than 62 percent of employees earn less than $50 per month.

58 percent are forced to take second jobs to earn money.

89 percent report a decline in living conditions since 1992.

14 percent would like to work outside of Russia.

6 percent express interest in moving "any place at all."

Source: Russia’s Nuclear and Missile Complex: The Human Factor Proliferation 2001, report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Russia retains a significant strategic ballistic missile force of some 1,130 operational intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

 

Encouraging Statistics from Former Soviet Republics

More than 1,250 former Soviet Union intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) have been removed from the overall force since 1991.

There are no longer any operational Russian ICBMs in Ukraine, Belarus, or Kazakhstan.

There was a 43% reduction in the number of Russian operational strategic nuclear warheads, from 10,280 in 1991 to 5,870 in 2000.

There was a 52% reduction in the number of Russian operational strategic nuclear delivery vehicles from 2,509 in 1991 to 1,207 in 2000.

Source for four previous entries: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.


Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction

As of January 2001, more than 25 countries have ballistic missiles available.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

As of December 2000, there are seven self-declared nuclear weapon states: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, and Pakistan.

Source: Carey Sublette, “Nuclear Weapons Frequently Asked Questions,” The High Energy Weapons Archive, A Guide to Nuclear Weapons, 9 August 2001.

There are 187 parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), including 185 of the 189 UN Member States (Switzerland and Vatican have also signed the NPT); the hold-outs are Cuba, India, Israel, and Pakistan.

Source: Carey Sublette, “Nuclear Weapons Frequently Asked Questions,” The High Energy Weapons Archive, A Guide to Nuclear Weapons, 9 August 2001.

 

India and Pakistan

In 1998, India conducted five nuclear test explosions.  Pakistan immediately responded with six nuclear tests of its own. Since these test explosions, India and Pakistan have engaged in a military confrontation in the Kargil district of Kashmir, casting doubt on the theory that nuclear balance between adversaries contributes to stability.

Source: Amartya Sen, “India and the Bomb,” The New Republic, 25 September 2000.

Although India has not yet deployed any nuclear weapons (despite its stated intention to do so), it has enough fissile material to produce approximately 45 to 95 weapons.

Source: “Proliferation News and Resources,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2001.

Pakistan reportedly has enough fissile material to make 30 to 52 weapons.

Source: “Proliferation News and Resources,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2001.

Foreign entities continue to provide assistance in the development of missile systems in Pakistan and India. India receives key missile technologies from Russian and Western European entities, while Pakistan is moving toward serial production of ballistic missiles with Chinese assistance.

Source: CIA, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology, 1 January - 30 June 2002.

 

China

During the 1990s, the People’s Republic of China deployed a total of approximately 20 CSS-4 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in silos, most of which are targeted on the United States. The CSS-4 ICBM’s have a range of 7,400 km.

Source: Select Committee, US House of Representatives, “PRC Missile and Space Forces,” in US National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People’s Republic of China, 3 January 1999.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is currently developing two road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile systems. It also has under development a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The Select Committee judges that within 15 years, this modernization program could result in the deployment of a PLA intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force consisting of up to 100 ICBMs.

Source: Select Committee, US House of Representatives, “PRC Missile and Space Forces,” in US National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People’s Republic of China, 3 January 1999.

China has more than 100 nuclear weapons. Approximately 20 of these are CSS-4 ICBMs with a range of 13,000 km (capable of reaching the United States).

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

Chinese firms have provided important missile related items and assistance to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. China also provided extensive support to Pakistan’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Source: “Proliferation News and Resources,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2001.

Chinese firms have provided important missile related items and assistance to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. China also provided extensive support to Pakistan’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

 

The Middle East

Israel is believed to have a stockpile of 60-80 plutonium weapons (100-200 nuclear weapons total). They are believed to have produced approximately 20 nuclear weapons between 1970-1980 and 100-200 nuclear weapons during the 1990’s.

Source: Anthony H. Cordesman (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East, July 2001.

Iraq tested a radiation bomb in 1987 for use against Iranian troops. The test was unsuccessful and the project was terminated.

Source: Anthony H. Cordesman (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East, July 2001.

Syria is estimated to have up to 200 Scud-B missiles with 310 km range and is believed to possess chemical warheads.

Source: Anthony H. Cordesman (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East, July 2001.

Iran is estimated to have up to 200-300 Scud-B (R-17E) missiles with 230-300 km range.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

Iraq fired nearly 90 Al Hussein 650 km ballistic missiles at Israel and the Arabian Peninsula during the Gulf War.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

 

Europe

As of 1996, the United Kingdom has 100 nuclear bombs deliverable by aircraft and 160 warheads deliverable by submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

Source: National Resources Defense Council.

As of 1996, France has 100 nuclear bombs deliverable by land-based aircraft, 384 warheads deliverable by sea-based missiles, and 20 nuclear bombs deliverable by sea-based aircraft.

Source: National Resources Defense Council.

 

The Korean Peninsula

North Korean Taepo Dong 2 (an intercontinental ballistic missile) could deliver a several hundred kilogram nuclear warhead to Alaska or Hawaii.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

South Korea has begun to study the construction of a medium range surface-to-air missile system.

Source: Flight International, 29 February-6 March 2000, p. 16.


The Reality of Chemical and Biological Weapons

Chemical

Between 1983 and 1988, Iraq used chemical weapons 10 times against Iranians and Kurds. Mustard gas, Tabun, and nerve agents caused approximately 25,000 casualties during these attacks.

Source: Anthony H. Cordesman (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East, July 2001.

In the spring of 1995, a doomsday cult known as Aum Shinrikyo unleashed the deadly nerve agent sarin in the Tokyo subway, killing several commuters.

Source: Patterns of Global Terrorism 2000, April 2001, USDOS, p. 11.

Russia has 40,000 metric tons of chemical agents located at seven sites in six different regions—the largest stockpile in the world. For Russia to eliminate 20% of its arsenal by 2002, under the terms of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), three destruction facilities would have to be operating at full capacity 24 hours a day, seven days a week. No such facilities are in operation today.

Source: Alexander Pikeyev, “Russian Implementation of the CWC,” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed. The Chemical Weapons Convention: Implementation Challenges and Solutions, Monterey Institute of International Studies, April 2001; Natalya Kalinina, Kremlin chemical weapons advisor, remarks at the Global Green Conference, Washington, D.C., April 2001.

As of February 2001, Iran, a Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) party, already has manufactured and stockpiled several thousand tons of chemical weapons, including blister, blood, and choking agents, and the bombs and artillery shells for delivering them. During the first half of 2000, Tehran continued to seek production technology, training, expertise, equipment, and chemicals that could be used as precursor agents in its chemical warfare (CW) program from entities in Russia and China.

Source: US Central Intelligence Agency, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions,” 1 January through 30 June 2000.

 

Biological

The Former Soviet Union produced thousands of tons of anthrax, smallpox, and plague for use as weapons, employing 65,000 personnel at approximately 50 facilities scattered across Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Much of this material remains today.

Source: Amy E. Smithson, “Toxic Archipelago: Preventing Proliferation from the Former Soviet Chemical and Biological Weapons Complexes,” Report No. 32 from the Henry L. Stimson Center December 1999.

During the Gulf War, Iraq admitted that it deployed biological agent-filled munitions to airfields and that these weapons were intended for use against Israel and coalition forces in Saudi Arabia.

Source: US Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001.

Eradication of smallpox was completed in 1977, and the last human cases (laboratory infections) occurred in 1978. The virus officially exists today in only two laboratory repositories in the United States and Russia. Appearance of human cases outside the laboratory would signal use of the virus as a biological weapon.

Source: Federation of American Scientists, Biological Warfare Agents.

A small airplane dispersing 220 pounds of anthrax spores could inflict more casualties in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area than a Scud missile carrying a hydrogen bomb.

Source: US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment report, “Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks,” 1993; and Michael T. Osterholm, Ph.D., M.P.H., and John Schwartz, Living Terrors: What America Needs to Know to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist Catastrophe, Delacorte Press, 2000.


 


CNSThis material is produced independently for NTI by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2003 by MIIS.


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