Current Challenges

he NPT currently faces unprecedented challenges in its nearly 40-year history, including new proliferation threats and long-standing concerns. Following the successful outcome of the 2000 Review Conference, very little progress was made during the review process for the 2005 Conference. The 2005 Review Conference failed to agree on any substantive issues in its final document.  The states parties perceive security challenges differently, including issues of non-compliance, concerns about the acquisition of nuclear material by terrorist groups, clandestine nuclear networks, and lack of progress on disarmament. 

Despite the fact that the NPT has more parties than any other arms control or disarmament treaty, there are continuing concerns regarding the three states that have not signed the treaty—India, Israel, and Pakistan—and the one state that withdrew from the treaty—North Korea—which conducted an underground nuclear weapon test in October 2006.   Many now believe that Iran’s opaque nuclear program is for military purposes. As a result, access to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy may be restricted further even at the expense of states that remain in good standing with their NPT obligations. Others argue that the civilian nuclear cooperation deal between India and the United States will ruin the treaty since it would essentially reward India for staying outside the regime. In the past, Iraq was determined to have violated its NPT inspection obligations by its actions prior to the 1991 Gulf War, and it refused to cooperate fully with UN-mandated inspection requirements between 1991 and 2003. However, according to a September 2004 Iraq Survey Report, Iraq's nuclear weapons program was dismantled in 1991 and no longer poses a challenge to the NPT.

Given the diminishing confidence in the NPT, some states parties may rely on mechanisms outside the regime. Divisions between the NWS and NNWS have also widened. NNWS believe that NWS have not met their legal Article VI obligations to disarm, obligations that were further emphasized by the decisions and agreements reached in 1995 and 2000.

The 2005 Review Conference represented a missed opportunity for states parties. Instead of building bridges between each other in order to collectively respond to these proliferation challenges, and to consolidate efforts to address long-standing disarmament efforts, the Review Conference magnified the divergence and division between NWS and NNWS with regard to treaty obligations.   Looking toward the 2010 NPT Review Conference, the political will of states parties will be essential in order to restore the credibility of the NPT regime.

Nuclear Disarmament (link to disarmament project)
Nuclear Terrorism (link to nuclear terrorism tutorial)
Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (link to NWFZ tutorial)
Safeguards
Security Assurances

This material is produced independently for NTI by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents.
Copyright © 2006 by MIIS.