Chapter 5 Source: http://www.empnet.com/imageworks/Raj1.html

India and Pakistan

oth India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in May 1998 and openly declared their possession of nuclear weapons and their status as nuclear powers. India first tested a nuclear explosive device in 1974 but did not test again until May 1998. Pakistan responded to the May 1998 Indian tests by conducting its first nuclear tests, six in all, later that same month. These tests represented the first time since the NPT's entry into force that new states declared their possession of nuclear weapons. Because they did not detonate a nuclear device prior to January 1967, India and Pakistan cannot be considered nuclear weapons states (NWS) under the NPT regime unless the treaty is amended. A month after the tests, the UN Security Council called on India and Pakistan to immediately and without condition become parties to the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) and to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Canada, Japan, and the United States also imposed sanctions on both countries, which were lifted in October 2001 as a result of both countries' cooperation in the global war on terror led by the United States. Pakistan has become a major ally of the United States in fighting terrorism. Critics contend that the lifting of these sanctions shows that the United States places higher priority on consolidating support for its war against terrorism than on addressing the threat represented by these new nuclear states.

Experts estimate that by the end of 1999, India had enough weapon-grade fissile material for approximately 65 nuclear weapons. India's historical objections to the NPT have been based on its own nuclear aspirations, and the idea that the treaty is a form of "nuclear apartheid" that allows the NWS to maintain their arsenals, while others are forced to give up their nuclear aspirations. Indian diplomats point to a lack of progress on disarmament by the NWS as proof that the treaty has been unfairly implemented.

Reversing its long held nonproliferation policy toward non-parties to the NPT, U.S. President Bush announced on July 18, 2005, a cooperation agreement to pursue full-scale civilian nuclear cooperation with India. On December 18, 2006, after months of deliberation and debate, President Bush signed the "Henry J. Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act," which allows Washington to cooperate with Delhi on civilian nuclear projects.

On July 27, 2007, the United States announced that it had reached an agreement with India on the terms governing the U.S. supply of nuclear equipment and technology. The United States must first conclude a bilateral cooperation agreement with India and the Nuclear Suppliers Group must lift restrictions on nuclear transfers to a non-NPT nuclear weapon state.

Since civilian nuclear cooperation between states has been considered one of the incentives for joining the NPT, the principal concern of critics is that this agreement would negatively impact the NPT regime since India would obtain the same privileges as NPT parties. Concerns also exist that this would lead to recognition of India as a nuclear weapon state. As of October 2007, due to opposition from lawmakers in both the United States and India, progress on the deal had stalled.

Reversing its long held nonproliferation policy toward non-parties to the NPT, U.S. President Bush announced on July 18, 2005, a cooperation agreement  to pursue full-scale civilian nuclear cooperation with India. The agreement will require U.S. domestic legislative maneuvering, and may encounter resistance both domestically and internationally. Since civilian nuclear cooperation between states has been considered as one of the incentives for joining the NPT, the principal concern of critics is that this agreement would negatively impact on the NPT regime since India could obtain the same level of privilege as NPT parties. Concerns also exist that this would lead to recognizing India as a nuclear weapon state.

Pakistan is believed to have begun its nuclear weapon program in 1972, although no nuclear tests were conducted until 1998. Pakistan procured uranium enrichment technology surreptitiously from Western European countries. China provided Pakistan with nuclear weapon design assistance before China joined the NPT. It is estimated that Pakistan had enough weapon-grade fissile material for approximately 40 nuclear weapons by the end of 1999. Pakistani leaders have said that they will join the NPT once India does so.

Both countries profess that nuclear weapons are needed to deter the other country. In addition, India claims that its nuclear deterrent is in response to China's nuclear weapon program. Tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, which date to the partition of British India in 1947, continue. In February 1999, India and Pakistan signed the Lahore Declaration, which stated their intention to find a peaceful resolution to their territorial disputes and to develop confidence-building measures (CBMs) for nuclear and conventional weapons and for ballistic missiles. Although renewed crises since 1999 have delayed the implementation of these CBMs, neither country has expressed an intention to join the NPT, although each has declared a unilateral nuclear testing moratorium. 

Another proliferation problem linked to South Asia came to light in February 2004 when the Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Quadeer Khan confessed to transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Khan claims he was acting independently, without government approval. But whether the Pakistani government was aware of Khan's activities remains unclear. The exact extent of his activities is also unclear, and his network may have had additional customers beyond the three countries listed above. The revelation of Khan's illicit nuclear supply network did, however, reveal insufficiencies in Pakistan's pre-existing export control laws. In the aftermath of these revelations, the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs moved to pass new export control regulations. In September 2004, a bill was passed by the Pakistani parliament, strengthening existing nuclear export control laws by instituting harsh penalties for violations, including up to 14 years of imprisonment, seizure of personal assets, and a higher fine.

 

Chapter 5, page 2 of 11

This material is produced independently for NTI by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents.
Copyright © 2006 by MIIS.