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It would be difficult for terrorists to obtain nuclear explosives, but it is not impossible. There are two basic paths that terrorists might pursue. The first route involves the acquisition of an intact nuclear weapon from the arsenal of an existing nuclear weapon state. The second path entails the acquisition of fissile material and the fabrication of a crude, improvised nuclear explosive device.
Terrorists might seek to acquire nuclear weapons or nuclear materials by a number of means:
- Such nuclear commodities might be provided directly by a sympathetic national government, but this carries risks since the government would lose control over these extremely important assets and might place itself at risk if its involvement in a nuclear terror act were subsequently discovered.
- A senior official operating independently from his government or a lower ranking insider, for financial or ideological reasons, might secretly divert a nuclear weapon or fissile material to a terrorist organization or assist the organization in the theft of such items.
- A terrorist organization might seize a poorly protected nuclear weapon or fissile material by stealth or force or illicit purchase on the black market.
Each of these options would involve formidable challenges and serious risks for the terrorist group. Each would also require a great deal of money and organizational and technical resources, which would be beyond the means of all but a few known terrorist organizations. Nevertheless, because the consequences of a nuclear detonation by a terrorist group would be so catastrophic, the possibility that terrorists might acquire nuclear weapons must be given the most serious and urgent attention.
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