 |
|
There are
over 20,000 nuclear weapons deployed throughout the world, plus an estimated 10,000 nuclear weapons which are inactive, in reserve status, or awaiting dismantlement. Despite the enormous number, because they are perceived to have great value, nuclear weapons are relatively easy to account for, and are located at sites maintained by armed military personnel. Thus, nuclear weapons are generally thought to be more secure than fissile material. Notwithstanding the inherent difficulty of stealing an intact nuclear weapon, concerns remain over the security of nuclear weapons in some countries. Many experts believe the large stockpile of Russian TNW and the much smaller arsenal of Pakistan nuclear arms are at particular risk, albeit for very different reasons.
The terrorism risks posed by Russian TNW stem from their physical properties as well as the policies for their deployment and employment. More specifically, these threats include:
- Vulnerability to theft. The relatively small size of TNW make them more attractive targets for theft than less portable warheads for most strategic delivery vehicles. TNW also are often stored separately from their delivery vehicles, which may also be used for the delivery of conventional weapons. Thus, TNW are more susceptible to theft than their strategic counterparts, which are more likely to be mated to missile delivery systems.
- Insider threat. A significant number of retired Russian
officers who previously guarded nuclear weapons sites continue to
live within the storage site's outer perimeter since they are
entitled to housing by law, even though they work elsewhere. There
have been cases in which these retirees have assisted local criminal
elements to penetrate several layers of security at nuclear storage
sites, although the target of these activities appears to have been
conventional rather than nuclear arms. Russian officials themselves
revealed that terrorist teams scouted Russian nuclear weapon sites
on four occasions in 2001-02. They also report that on two separate
occasions during 2002-03, attempts were made by individuals to
penetrate military facilities at which nuclear weapons were stored.
Pakistan's small nuclear arsenal, perhaps numbering up to 48 weapons, poses very different security problems. They pertain not only to political instability, but to the continuing pressure within Pakistan and the surrounding region of Islamic militant terrorist groups and the sympathy for such groups by segments of the Pakistani military, nuclear, and intelligence establishment. These concerns have been accentuated by news of the clandestine sales of Pakistani nuclear technology-including designs for nuclear weapons-by A.Q. Khan and uncertainties about the loyalty of personnel in the Pakistani nuclear command structure. |
Some fear that North Korea could sell nuclear weapons or material to terrorists. |
The severe challenges to the security of nuclear weapons seen in Russia and Pakistan have not been observed to the same degree in China, France, Great Britain, or the United States. There is little public information about the security of India's nuclear arsenal. Although Israel also confronts major terrorist threats, most observers believe its nuclear arms are well protected. (It is Israeli policy to neither confirm nor deny that it possesses nuclear weapons, although it is widely believed that Israel has been a nuclear state for several decades.) In the case of North Korea, it is doubtful that non-state sanctioned terrorist organizations could operate within the country. The United States, however, has expressed concern that due to economic demands, North Korea might attempt to sell nuclear weapons to the highest bidder, much as it has previously sold ballistic missiles, as a matter of official policy. (In February 2005, North Korea announced for the first time that it has nuclear weapons.
In October 2006, North Korea tested a nuclear device with an estimated
low yield of about 500 tons. It is widely believed that Pyongyang possesses sufficient fissile material for a small number of nuclear warheads, possibly as many as 10.)One of the most frightening scenarios regarding nuclear weapons security involves a "failed state." If the government of a country such as North Korea or Pakistan collapsed because of war, a coup d'etat, or other disaster, the resulting chaos might create conditions in which terrorists could more easily obtain a nuclear weapon.
|
|