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Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. |
The previous chapters of this tutorial have focused on the threat of nuclear terrorism by investigating four key questions:
- What are nuclear weapons?
- How could terrorists acquire or build nuclear weapons?
- Why would terrorists use nuclear weapons?
- How should the world respond to the threat of nuclear terrorism?
This tutorial has demonstrated that a terrorist organization can acquire a nuclear explosive either (1) by obtaining an intact nuclear weapon from a national stockpile or (2) by acquiring fissile material from national stocks and then making the fissile material into a nuclear explosive, most likely using a gun-type design.
The danger that weapons or materials might be stolen or fall into the hands of terrorist organizations is a global one. Years after the end of the Cold War, there are still over
27,000 strategic and tactical nuclear weapons in national arsenals. Global stockpiles of plutonium and HEU total nearly 4,000 metric tons—enough for about 200,000 crude nuclear bombs.
In recent years, the amount of plutonium separated from spent fuel has
grown by several metric tons annually. Facilities with varying degrees
of security in more than 50 nations possess kilogram quantities of
fissile material. Terrorist organizations pursuing nuclear weapons will search for the weakest link, making the security of vulnerable material, wherever it may be, the problem of one and all.
The threat of nuclear terrorism, therefore, is a global problem that demands global solutions. Nuclear weapons may offer terrorists the ultimate means of mass destruction, but a comprehensive global strategy can counter this threat. If the international community is to prevent nuclear materials and weapons from falling into the hands of terrorist organizations, it must secure and account for every weapon and every kilogram of HEU and plutonium. Indeed, because obtaining HEU and plutonium is the most difficult part of making a nuclear explosive, these materials should be secured as well as nuclear weapons themselves.
While there has been important progress in locking down weapons and materials, much more needs to be done. Governments around the world must accelerate their efforts to secure or destroy nuclear weapons materials to keep them out of terrorist hands. This is the least expensive, most effective way to prevent nuclear terrorism.
Governments must make the lockdown of nuclear materials and weapons their top priority until the job is finished. Countries’ leaders must develop plans for completing the removal of nuclear materials from vulnerable locations. Particular attention should be given to protecting, consolidating, reducing, and eliminating HEU since a terrorist group could manufacture an improvised nuclear device (IND) far more easily from this material than from plutonium. Nuclear regulatory and military establishments must establish a strong security culture so that personnel understand their role in preventing theft or diversion of nuclear weapons or materials.
States also must look beyond their own borders and treat the global lockdown of nuclear weapons and materials as a diplomatic priority. Countries will need to work together to remove bureaucratic roadblocks, allocate additional funds, and accelerate implementation of programs. Effective counterterrorism efforts will require collaboration among countries to disrupt the few terrorist organizations (in particular Al Qaeda and related entities) that may have the motives and capabilities to engage in terror with nuclear explosives.
As former Senator Sam Nunn has said, “An acceptable level of accountability, transparency, safety and security must be established and maintained in every nation that has nuclear weapons or dangerous nuclear material.” This is an expensive, complex task, but the resources and technology exist to get it done.
Nuclear terrorism is preventable. The time to act is now.
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