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In 1974,
Iran and Egypt proposed the establishment of a NWFZ in the Middle East. Since
then, the UN General Assembly adopted several resolutions endorsing this
idea without much success, mainly due to opposition by Israel (which is
generally believed to possess nuclear weapons) and the United States (a longtime
supporter of Israel).
In April 1990, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak went further and proposed
the establishment of the Middle East of a zone free of all types of weapons of
mass destruction. Serious obstacles, however, continue to stand in the way of
establishing such a zone. Israel's nuclear weapons capabilities and
its refusal to join the NPT, along with the continued political and strategic tensions in the
region, have blocked progress towards this goal. While Egypt and other Arab nations insist on
Israel's accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state, Israel maintains
that there must first be a comprehensive peace between Israel and its
neighbors. In addition, the demarcation of the zone would be difficult to
determine since the definition of the Middle East itself contains some vague
elements. Geographically the NWFZ in the Middle East may partially overlap with
the NWFZ in Africa, because Egypt and other states in North Africa are located
within the area covered by the Treaty of Pelindaba.
Focus on WMD issues in the Middle East increased following the
discovery of a clandestine nuclear weapon program in Iraq after the 1991 Persian
Gulf War. Shortly after the war, the UN Security Council adopted
Resolution 687
which emphasized the denuclearization of the Middle East to
promote regional security. At the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, which brought
Israel, the Palestinians, and many other Middle Eastern countries to the table, the participants
agreed to take a multilateral track towards regional arms control and security.
They established a working group on
Arms Control and Regional Security in the
Middle East (ACRS).
However, due to dissent between Israel and Egypt over the WMD free zone, the
ACRS has not held a formal meeting since September 1995.
Both the 1995
and 2000 NPT Review Conferences expressed clear support for the establishment of
a NWFZ in the Middle East.
The Resolution on the Middle East adopted at the 1995 NPT
Review and Extension Conference called on all states in the region to join the
treaty and put all nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards. (Although Israel was
not named directly, it is the only state in the Middle East not party to the
treaty.) The resolution also required all states in the region to work toward a
Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons, as well as other weapons of mass
destruction, and calls on all NPT states parties, in particular the nuclear
weapons states, to support this goal. The implementation of the 1995 resolution
on the Middle East requires establishing a reporting mechanism within the NPT
review process.
It is unlikely that the region will agree to establish
such a zone before the Middle East Peace Process is concluded. The dispute
between Israel and its neighbors is the most significant impediment towards the
establishment of the zone. On one hand, Israel is not
likely to give up its nuclear deterrent capability until it feels that its
national security is no longer threatened. Israel's neighbors, on the other hand,
argue that the mere existence of Israel's nuclear program threatens their
security.
While Israel is the only country in the Middle East believed
to possess nuclear weapons, it may not be the only state with a nuclear weapons
program. Controversy regarding Iran's nuclear program has intensified over the last number
of years, and the IAEA Board of Governors has adopted a number of
resolutions expressing concern over the uncertainties around Tehran's nuclear program. Although the IAEA continues to investigate the extent of the Iranian program, the United
States, Israel, and a number of European countries have expressed great concern
about Iran's apparent lack of willingness to fulfill its NPT obligations, and many
questions about Iran's compliance remain unanswered.
While tensions over Israeli nuclear weapons
and Iran's nuclear program continue to thwart progress toward a zone free
of WMD, other nuclear concerns in the region came to an abrupt end in 2003.
Concerns about a possible resumption of Iraq's nuclear weapons program was used
as justification for Operation Iraqi Freedom, which removed Saddam Hussein from
power in April 2003. However, subsequent searches by coalition forces failed to find evidence of
efforts to restart Iraq's nuclear weapons program, confirming earlier IAEA conclusions.
In December 2003, Libya, long suspected of developing nuclear weapons, announced that
it was terminating all its WMD programs. Additionally, Libya and Iran have
both signed additional protocols to their respective IAEA safeguards agreement. While these developments
have alleviated some proliferation concerns in the region, continuing conflict
in Iraq and instability throughout the region dim the prospects for establishing
a zone free of WMD in the Middle East in the near
future.
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