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North Korea

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Last Updated: September, 2016


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North Korea possesses significant ballistic missile capabilities, and since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been one of the most active exporters of complete ballistic missile systems, components, and technology. Pyongyang received foreign assistance over the years, most notably from the Former Soviet Union and China, but the complete details of all foreign assistance remain vague. Considering North Korea's long-standing interest in advancing its missile capabilities, its missile program is notable in that there have been relatively few flight tests. U.S. sources estimate that North Korea has deployed over 600 Scud missile variants, about 200 Nodong (Rodong) missiles, and fewer than 50 Musudan and Taepodong missiles, while South Korean sources estimate even fewer. [1]

North Korea sees missile development as both an investment in its security and a means of generating cash. It is neither a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) nor the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC). However, North Korea claimed membership in the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies and the Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space in advance of the launch of the Unha-3 SLV in an attempt to "contribute to promoting international confidence." [2] Nonetheless, the UN Security Council condemned the initial launch and all launches since, as many saw them as veiled tests of North Korea's illicit ICBM efforts. [3]

Design Characteristics Table

History

North Korea first entered the field of rockets and missiles in the early 1960s with the production of multiple rocket launchers. [4] By 1965, Kim Il Sung made the political decision to seek an indigenous ballistic missile production capability. That year marked the establishment of the Hamhung Military Academy, where North Korean personnel began to receive training in missile development. [5] In general, the 1960s marked the procurement of rockets, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), anti-ship missiles, and the initial development of human resources to support a missile program. By 1967-71, DPRK's military budget increased to about 30 percent of its state budget. [6]

There were a number of factors that likely motivated the North Korean leadership to acquire and develop ballistic missile capabilities. First, Kim Il Sung viewed ballistic missiles as weapons to deter or defeat U.S. military forces in a subsequent conflict. Second, rocky alliance relationships with both the Soviet Union and China caused Kim to question the credibility of Moscow's and Beijing's commitments to aid Pyongyang in the event of another war. [7]

Early Ballistic Missile Developments

During the late 1960s, Pyongyang acquired surface-to-ship missiles and FROG-5/7 rockets from Moscow, [8] and by 1970, Beijing was delivering surface-to-ship missiles, SAMs, and technical assistance. [9] Although North Korea sought to acquire Soviet ballistic missiles as early as the mid-1960s, Moscow declined, at least initially, so Pyongyang turned to Beijing for help to produce ballistic missiles. In September 1971, North Korea signed an agreement with China to acquire, develop, and produce ballistic missiles and other weapon systems. However, substantial cooperation did not begin until about 1977, when Korean engineers were able to participate in a joint program to develop China's DF-61. [10]

The development of North Korean human resources was necessary, but not sufficient, for the relatively rapid progress in Pyongyang's missile development program. North Korea has relied upon the transfer of hardware and technology from more advanced producers. North Korea obtained Soviet-made Scud-B missiles to begin a reverse-engineering program, but the timing and source of the procurement are still unclear- possibly as early as 1972 from the USSR. [11] However, the general view is that Egypt provided the first Scud-Bs to North Korea in 1976, or at some time between 1979 and 1981. [12]

By 1984, North Korea had produced and flight-tested the Hwasong-5, an indigenous version of the Scud-B, and in 1985 Pyongyang reached an agreement with Tehran to obtain financial assistance for missile development and production in exchange for Iran's option to purchase North Korean missiles in the future. [13] Iran's ballistic missile "war of the cities" with Iraq created an opportunity for North Korea to earn foreign exchange and increase scale economies in production. Furthermore, Tehran's use of the Hwasong-5 provided Pyongyang with performance data that would otherwise have required extensive indigenous flight-testing.

From 1985 to 1986, North Korea began to construct missile bases for the Hwasong-5, which entered serial production by 1987. It is believed production rate peaked at eight to ten missiles per month during 1987 to 1988. [14] As soon as or shortly after mass production of the Hwasong-5 began, North Korea began development of the Hwasong-6 (Scud-C), before rapidly starting the Nodong development program around the 1987 to 1989 timeframe. [15] This prompt sequence of development is remarkable, and historically unprecedented for a small developing country. Late-industrializing countries can reduce the time required for industrialization, and the same is true in the area of missiles. However, accelerated development is generally a function of foreign technology transfers, so Pyongyang's extremely rapid progress in missile development suggests a high level of foreign technical assistance.

By the late 1980s, North Korea began construction of intermediate-range missiles that were still under development. Around 1990 to 1991, serial production of the Hwasong-6 began, at about the same time the first Nodong prototypes were built. [16] Meanwhile, Pyongyang began to provide technology transfers, and even turnkey Scud factories, to countries in the Middle East.

Intermediate-Range Missile Development

In the late 1980s, North Korea's Second Natural Science Institute began development of the so-called "Nodong" intermediate-range ballistic missile. U.S. reconnaissance satellites detected a Nodong missile on the launch pad at the Musudan-ri missile test site in May 1990, but subsequent imagery revealed burn marks on the pad, which indicated a probable test failure. [17] Nevertheless, North Korea reportedly was able to obtain Nodong sales contracts with Libya, Iran, and possibly Syria and Pakistan before the Nodong was successfully flight-tested in late May 1993. [18] Although the Nodong was later flight-tested in Iran and Pakistan, the 1993 flight test is still Pyongyang's only indigenous test. It is worth noting that North Korea was unable to test the Nodong to its full intended range for geographic reasons. Nevertheless, Pyongyang began to deploy the Nodong in 1995. [19]

As North Korea was nearing completion of the Nodong's development, engineers were also working on the Taepodong-1. The Taepodong-1 does not have a new airframe or engine design, but is a two-stage missile with a Nodong as the first stage and Hwasong (Scud) variant as the second stage. [20] The Taepodong-1 was flight-tested in a space launch configuration on August 31, 1998, but did not place a small satellite named Kwangmyongsong-1 into earth orbit due to the failure of its third stage. [21]

North Korea's missile exports have represented a significant source of hard currency for Pyongyang. On December 10, 2002, Spanish and U.S. naval ships intercepted the North Korean ship So San en route to Yemen. The So San cargo included 15 Scud missiles, conventional warheads, and 85 drums of "inhibited red fuming nitric acid," which is used as an oxidizer for Scud missile fuel. North Korea declared the interception of the So San an "act of piracy" and demanded "compensation for the losses and personal trauma experienced by the crew members." The So San was ultimately permitted to deliver the Scuds, which were purchased by the Yemeni army for its own defensive use and therefore did not break international law at that time. [22]

In 2003, U.S. satellite imagery revealed the development of a new North Korean intermediate-range ballistic missile known as the Musudan BM-25. The missile seems to derive from the Soviet R-27 (SS-N-6) liquid-fueled submarine-launched ballistic missile, which the Soviets deployed from the 1960s to the 1980s and had a range of up to 2,500km. [23] Some of the Soviet scientists who had worked on the R-27 program moved to North Korea following the collapse of the U.S.S.R, and North Korea may have also procured some of the program's surplus hardware. [24] The Musudan's design is a mobile, land-based, and liquid-fueled ballistic missile with a length of 12 meters, diameter of 1.5 meters, and a range of 2,500-4,000km. [25] The Musudan's range may allow North Korea to strike American military bases in Guam, although its actual capabilities are unknown and debated. [26]

North Korea displayed the Musudan for the first time in 2007, although Pyongyang did not release images of the missile. In late 2009, leaked U.S. diplomatic cables revealed that North Korea likely exported Musudan missiles to Iran. [27] The Musudan later made its public debut in front of the Western press in an October 2010 military parade alongside Kim Jong Un, who made his own international press-debut at the event. The October parade was also notable for unveiling a new Nodong variant, about which little is known. The variant has a triconic nose-cone that greatly resembles Iran's Ghader-1 missile, perhaps hinting at further cooperation. [28]

North Korea did not test the Musudan until 2016. From April to June of 2016, there were six missile tests in quick succession. The first five were failures, in contrast with the 461 successful tests of the relatively reliable Soviet R-27 that provided the core design for the Musudan system. [29] The rapid, back-to-back nature of the tests was also unusual for North Korea, which generally takes several months after a failure to diagnose the problem before trying again. [30] Because the time in between the successive tests was insufficient to diagnose and correct the missile's problems, North Korea likely proceeded with the subsequent attempts for political rather than practical purposes. [31] The sixth test, however, appears to have been at least partially successful. [32] The missile flew over 400km, the longest thus far for a Musudan. Experts believe the missile's operational range is substantially greater, but that North Korea tested the system at an angle that would keep the missile in its own territorial space. [33]

Intercontinental Missile Development

In the mid-1990s, North Korea began design and development of the three-stage Taepodong-2. The first stage may use four Nodong engines, while the second stage could be based on a Nodong design as well. [34] Despite the lack of success in its flight testing, U.S. intelligence sources have consistently asserted that a functional Taepodong-2 could deliver a small payload to the western part of the continental United States. [35]

In July 2006, North Korea flight-tested several ballistic missiles, including the long-range Taepodong-2. The Taepodong-2 failed at about 40-42 seconds. [36] The North Korean Foreign Ministry referred to the July launches as "regular military drills to strengthen self-defense," and claimed it had a legal right to "continue with missile launch drills." [37] However, on July 15, 2006, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted Resolution 1695, which demands that North Korea suspend all missile-related activities and requires all UN member states to prevent the transfer of missile-related materials and technologies to North Korea. [38]

On April 5, 2009, North Korea launched an Unha-2 space launch vehicle-which is a modified version of the Taepodong-2. [39] Although North Korean media immediately claimed that the satellite had been placed into orbit, no orbit was detected by outside observers. The launch of the three-stage rocket was seen as a technical failure with the first stage splashing down in the water between the Korean peninsula and Japan, and the remaining stages, along with the payload, falling into the Pacific Ocean. [40]

In 2011, North Korea completed a 10-year initial construction project at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. [41] The new base included a movable launch pad and a gantry tower which exceeds the needs of North Korea's largest ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles. The base is comprised of several missile assembly and testing structures, a launch warehouse, an observation tower, and a rocket engine test pad. [42] The site far outpaces North Korea's Tonghae facility near Musudan-ri, where it has tested short-range, medium-range, and intercontinental missiles. North Korea has since used Sohae to launch the Unha-3 rocket, and possibly test the engine of KN-08 missiles. [43]

The United States and North Korea pursued talks in February 2012, which culminated in North Korea's announcement that it would suspend long-range missile tests, along with uranium enrichment and nuclear tests. [44] However, on April 12, 2012 North Korea attempted to launch a satellite into orbit to mark the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth using an Unha-3 rocket. The launch failed in seconds. [45] Because of the dual-use nature of missile technology, the United States considered this space launch a violation of North Korea's pledge that it would not test long-range missiles, and withdrew its offer of food aid. Three days later, Pyongyang held a parade in honor of its founding father Kim Il Sung, which purported to display a new missile system known externally as the KN-08. The missiles are most likely only mock-ups. [46] The KN-08s were displayed on six trucks of Chinese origin which had been converted to transporter-erector-launchers. [47] In October 2015, North Korea unveiled a new version of the KN-08 with a smaller, less conical warhead. [48]

On December 12, 2012, North Korea re-tested its Unha-3 rocket from the Sohae launch facility, successfully putting a satellite into orbit. [49] While North Korea refers to its rocket as a space launch vehicle, the technology is very similar to that of a long-range missile. In order to deliver a nuclear payload, the rocket would require the addition of a re-entry vehicle which requires technology and advanced materials experts believe North Korea does not currently possess. However, on March 15, 2016, North Korea announced it had begun testing just such a re-entry vehicle. [50] In February 2013, North Korea declared it had miniaturized a nuclear warhead, although it has not been definitively demonstrated to the outside world. [51]

Recent Developments and Current Status

North Korea has been working to improve its existing missiles and augment their capabilities. On March 9, 2015, North Korea released photographs showing Kim Jong Un in front of, what it claimed, was a miniaturized implosion-type nuclear weapon capable of fitting on the end of a missile. [52] In that same month, North Korea also released photographs appearing to show a successful test of a heat shield for a re-entry vehicle. [53] On April 9, 2016, North Korea announced it had tested a new type of ICBM engine. [54] Accurate details on the engine's capabilities are scarce; North Korea has only claimed that the new engine brings the U.S. mainland within range of its missiles. [55] Experts speculate that the engine might be a 4D10 engine, a sophisticated missile engine that was used in the SS-N-6 Soviet ballistic missile, if true this actually would bring most of the United States into North Korean missile range. [56]

These advancements have also been accompanied by upgrades to infrastructure and an increase in testing. The Sohae Satellite Launching Station, officially completed in 2011, has undergone significant additional construction since 2013. An eleventh level was added to the gantry tower, making room for rockets up to fifty meters in length; two new storehouses were completed, effectively doubling the storage capacity for rocket fuel and oxidizer; and an underground rail spur and moveable processing structure were added, making it increasingly difficult for outsiders to detect launch preparations. [57] This facility has become the regime's workhorse for long-range missile tests. On February 7, 2016, North Korea used the facility to launch the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) using the Unha-3 rocket. [58] The launch triggered widespread international condemnation and, in conjunction with a January 2016 nuclear test, led to additional sanctions being leveled against North Korea. [59]

North Korea has also been developing submarine-launched ballistic missile capabilities. In July 2014, a new type of submarine was spotted at the Sinpo Shipyard with visible conning towers that might be used to house either ballistic or cruise missiles. [60] On May 10, 2015, North Korea released images of Kim Jong Un observing a test of a Polaris-1 (북극성-1) SLBM purportedly launched from a submerged submarine. Analysts; however, have since determined the images were falsified, and that the missile was actually launched from a submerged barge. [61]

Since then North Korea has increased the pace and frequency of its missile tests. On March 24, 2016, North Korea tested a solid-fueled rocket motor. [62] Solid-fueled missiles, in contrast to liquid-fueled missiles, are much more storable and stable. This key difference makes solid-fuel propellants ideal for use in ballistic missiles, and especially in SLBMs. On April 23, 2016, North Korea tested what experts believe was a solid-fueled SLBM. [63] The missile flew only 30 km, well below its expected range of 300 km. [64] [65] On August 24, however, North Korea performed a second SLBM test, only this time the missile traveled about 1,000 km and landed about 250 km west of Japan. These tests occurred around the same time as North Korea's Musudan tests which took place between April and June of 2016. Following these tests, North Korea carried out a test of the Rodong (or Nodong) missile. On August 2nd North Korea launched two missiles, one of which traveled about 1,000 km and landed only 250 km west of Japan, in their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). [66] Shortly after on September 5th, in the middle of the 2016 G20 Hangzhou Summit, North Korea carried out a simultaneous test of three never-before-seen missiles which landed about 200 km west of Japan. [67] The missiles are believed to be the Extended Range Scud (ER Scud). [68] The ER Scud appears to be slightly larger than the scuds traditionally employed by the regime, however, the missiles possess almost twice the range. [69] The test drew a sharp rebuke from Chinese President Xi Jinping who stated that the test damaged the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula. [70]

Sources:
[1] "Strategic Weapon System, Korea, North," Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment, January 20, 2011.
[2] "KCNA Report on DPRK's Accession to International Space Treaty and Convention," KCNA, March 12, 2009, www.kcna.co.jp.
[3] UN Security Council, "Statement by the President of the Security Council S/PRST/2009/7," April 13, 2009, www.un.org.
[4] Christopher F. Foss, editor, Jane's Armour and Artillery 1991-92 (Coulsdon, Surrey: Jane's Information Group, 1991), p. 719.
[5] Yun Deok-min, "미-북 미사일 협상의 현황과 전망 (Current and future of US-NK Missile negotiation)," ROK IFANS policy paper, November 22, 2000, p. 2; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 2; Testimony of Ko Yong-hwan, former North Korean Foreign Ministry official, before the US Senate, October 21, 1997.
[6] "통일부 (Ministry of Unification)," 2004 북한개요 (2004 North Korea Summary), Seoul, South Korea: Ministry of Unification, 2003, p. 198.
[7] The Second Machine Industry Ministry, under the party secretary in charge of military industries, was established shortly after Kim's declaration. The Second Machine Industry Ministry was renamed the "Second Economic Committee" in 1971. The Second Economic Committee is responsible for the production of all armaments. See Joseph S. Bermudez, The Armed Forces of North Korea (New York: I. B. Tauris, 2001), pp. 45-46; "민생 희생 위 군수산업 번창 (Military Industry prosperity on public's dedication)," Hankyoreh Shinmun, March 31, 1997, p. 6, www.kinds.or.kr; Kim Gwang-in, "돼지공장' 선 미사일 생산 (Producing Missiles in 'Pig Factory')," Chosun Ilbo, February 11, 2001, www.chosun.com.
[8] Jang Jun-ik, 북한핵 미사일 전쟁 (North Korea Nuclear Missile War) Seoul: Seomundang, May 1999, pp. 246-247; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, pp. 4-5; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "The North Korean 'Scud B' Program," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1989, pp. 203-207; Christopher F. Foss, editor, Jane's Armour and Artillery 1991-92 (Coulsdon, Surrey: Jane's Information Group, 1991), p. 749.
[9] Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "The North Korean 'Scud B' Program," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1989, pp. 203-207; Christopher F. Foss, editor, Jane's Armour and Artillery 1991-92 (Coulsdon, Surrey: Jane's Information Group, 1991), p. 749; Gordon Jacobs and Tim McCarthy, "China's Missile Sales-Few Changes for the Future," Jane's Intelligence Review, December 1992, p. 560.
[10] The DF-61 was designed to be a liquid-propelled ballistic missile with a range of about 600km while delivering a 1,000kg warhead. The program was cancelled because of Chinese domestic political reasons in 1978. See Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 3; Hua Di, "One Superpower Worse than Two," Asia-Pacific Defense Reporter, September 1991, pp. 14-15; John Wilson Lewis and Hua Di, "Beijing's Defense Establishment: Solving the Arms Export Enigma," International Security, Fall 1992, pp. 5-40; Jang Jun-ik, 북한핵 미사일 전쟁 (North Korea Nuclear Missile War) (Seoul: Seomundang, May 1999), pp. 248-249.
[11] A high-level North Korean defector claims that Pyongyang leveraged its capture of the USS Pueblo and the hardware on board to bargain with Moscow and get a contract for the delivery of 20 Scud-B missiles. This report and any details about an agreement for subsequent deliveries or technology transfers have not been substantiated. Interview with North Korean defector by CNS senior research associate Daniel A. Pinkston, November 1, 2000, Seoul.
[12] ROK Ministry of Unification, Information Analysis Bureau, "북한 미사일 문제 관련 참고자료 (References about NK missile problem)," Press Release, November 3, 2000, p. 1; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 10; Jang Jun-ik, 북한핵 미사일 전쟁 (North Korea Nuclear Missile War), Seoul: Seomundang, May 1999, pp. 249, 266; Lee Jeong-hun, "프로그에서 대포동 까지: 북한 미사일 게임 (From FROG to Taepodong: North Korea's Missile Game)," Shindonga, August 1999, p. 202; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "Ballistic Ambitions Ascendant," Jane's Defence Weekly, April 10, 1993, pp. 20, 22; Jang Jun-ik, 북한핵 미사일 전쟁 (North Korea Nuclear Missile War), Seoul: Seomundang, May 1999), pp. 249-250, 257, 266; Lee Jeong-hun, 프로그에서 대포동 까지: 북한 미사일 게임 (From FROG to Taepodong: North Korea's Missile Game)," Shindonga, August 1999, p. 202; Hajime Ozu, Missile 2000: Reference Guide to World Missile Systems (Tokyo: Shinkigensha, 2000), p. 95; "Ballistic Missile Threat Evolves," International Defense Review, Vol. 33, No. 10, October 1, 2000, in Lexis-Nexis, www.lexis-nexis.com.
[13] Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999; Lee Jeong-hun, "프로그에서 대포동 까지: 북한 미사일 게임 (From FROG to Taepodong: North Korea's Missile Game)," Shindonga, August 1999, p. 202.
[14] Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 12-15.
[15] Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 16.
[16] Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 11.
[17] "Defense Ministry: May Nodong-1 Test Successful," Yonhap News Agency, June 24, 1993.
[18] Steven Emerson, "The Postwar Scud Boom," Wall Street Journal, July 10, 1991, p. A12; "DPRK Reportedly to Build New Scud Missile," Yonhap News Agency, June 3, 1991; Bill Gertz, "Libya May Buy N. Korean Missiles," Washington Times, June 4, 1991, p. 4; Bill Gertz, "China, N. Korea Secretly Deliver Missiles to Mideast via Cyprus," Washington Times, July 2, 1991, p. A4; Leslie Susser, "How to Control the Arms Race and Stay on Top," The Jerusalem Report, June 13, 1991, p. 27, in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, http://web.lexis-nexis.com; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 23.
[19] "Musudan (BM-25)," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, July 20, 2010.
[20] "Taepo Dong 1," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, July 20, 2010.
[21] Joseph Bermudez, "North Koreans Test Two-Stage IRBM over Japan," Jane's Defence Weekly, September 9, 1998.
[22] However, since the So San incident the passage of UN Security Council Resolutions 1695, 1718, and 1874, and 2087 prevents UN member states from engaging in similar trade. Brian Knowlton, "Ship Allowed to take North Korea Scuds on to Yemeni Port: U.S. Frees Freighter Carrying Missiles," New York Times, December 12, 2002, www.nytimes.com.
[23] John Schilling, "Three (or Four) Strikes for the Musudan?" 38 North, June 1, 2016, www.38north.org.
[24] John Schilling, "Three (or Four) Strikes for the Musudan?" 38 North, June 1, 2016, www.38north.org.
[25] "Musudan (BM-25)," Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, July 20, 2010.
[26] Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker, "Explaining the Musudan: New Insights on the North Korean SS-N-6 Technology," May 31, 2012.
[27] State Department, Secretary of State, "Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR): North Korea's Missile Program," Cable to the Missile Technology Control Regime, WikiLeaks, October 6, 2009, www.wikileaks.org.
[28] Catherine Boye, Melissa Hanham, Seungho Lee, "Missiles, Maneuvers and Mysteries: Review of Recent Developments in North Korea," CNS Feature Stories, November 2, 2010, www.nonproliferation.org.
[29] Tamir Eshel, "North Korean Musudan IRBM Failed - Again," Defense Update, May 31, 2016, defense-update.com.
[30] John Schilling, "North Korea: Four times unlucky, or just foolish?" CNN, June 5, 2016, www.cnn.com.
[31] John Schilling, "Three (or Four) Strikes for the Musudan?" 38 North, June 1, 2016, www.38north.org.
[32] Jung-eun Kim, Madison Park, and Barbara Starr, "North Korea fires two missiles, South Korea says," CNN, June 22, 2016, www.cnn.com.
[33] Justin McCurry, "North Korea: UN security council 'to meet' after missile tests," The Guardian, June 22, 2016, www.theguardian.com.
[34] "Taepo Dong 2," Federation of American Scientists, www.fas.org.
[35] National Intelligence Council, "Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat through 2015: Unclassified Summary of a National Intelligence Estimate," December 2001, www.dni.gov; Elizabeth Bumiller and David Sanger, "Gates Warns of North Korea Missile Threat to U.S.," The New York Times, January 11, 2011, www. nytimes.com; David Wright, "Secretary Gates and the North Korean Missile Threat," 38 North, January 27, 2011, http://38north.org.
[36] Stockman, Farah, "Defiant North Korea Tests Missiles; Launching Stirs Diplomatic Furor," Boston Globe, July 5, 2006, in Lexis-Nexis, http://web.lexis-nexis.com; "Taepo Dong 2," Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, July 20, 2010.
[37] "N Korea Vows More Missile Tests," BBC News, July 6, 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk.
[38] United Nations Security Council, "Resolution 1695 (2006)," adopted by the Security Council at its 5490th meeting on July 15, 2006, www.un.org.
[39] "Taepo Dong 2," Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems, July 20, 2010.
[40] Jae-soon Chang and Kelly Olsen, "Analysts: Rocket Gives N. Korea New Bargaining Chip," Associated Press, April 6, 2009.
[41] James Hardy, "Concerns Raised over North Korean Nuclear Programme, "Jane's Defense Weekly, February 22, 2011.
[42] "North Korea Seen Finishing New Missile Launch Tower, "Global Security Newswire, February 16, 2011.
[43] Nick Hansen, "Significant Developments at North Korea's Sohae Test Facility," 38 North, January 29, 2014, http://38north.org; Nick Hansen, "North Korea's Sohae Facility: Preparations for Future Large Rocket Launches Progresses; New Unidentified Buildings," 38 North, July 29, 2014, http://38north.org.
[44] Steven Lee Myers and Choe Sang-hun, "North Koreans Agree to Freeze Nuclear Work; U.S. to Give Aid," New York Times, February 29, 2012, www.nytimes.com.
[45] Evan Ramstad and Laura Meckler, "North Korean Launch Fails," The Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2012, http://online.wsj.com.
[46] Jeffrey Lewis, "Real Fake Missiles?," Arms Control Wonk, May 1, 2012, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com.
[47] Melissa Hanham, "North Korea's Procurement Network Strikes Again: Examining How Chinese Missile Hardware Ended Up in Pyongyang," NTI Issue Brief, July 31, 2012, www.nti.org.
[48] Fisher, Robert D, "North Korea unveils new version of KN-08 ICBM," IHS Jane's, October 12, 2015. www.janes.com.
[49] Kim Eun-jung, "S. Korea, U.S. Assess N. Korea's Rocket Launch as Success," Yonhap News Agency, December 12, 2012, http://yonhapnews.co.kr.
[50] "N. Korea to 'soon' conduct nuke warhead, ballistic missile tests," Yonhap News Agency, March 15, 2016.
[51] "제3차 지하핵시험을 성공적으로 진행 [Third Underground Nuclear Test Conducted Successfully]," KCNA, February 12, 2013, www.kcna.kp.
[52] Dave Schmerler, "N. Korea counters doubts with 'miniaturized' bomb photo," NK News, March 10, 2015, www.nknews.org.
[53] Ha-young Choi, "North Korea claims successful missile re-entry technology," NK News, March 15, 2016, www.nknews.org.
[54] "North Korea 'Tests Long-Range Missile Engine,'" BBC, April 9, 2016, www.bbc.com.
[55] "North Korea 'Tests Long-Range Missile Engine,'" BBC, April 9, 2016, www.bbc.com.
[56] Jeffrey Lewis, "New DPRK ICBM Engine," Arms Control Wonk, April 9, 2016, www.armscontrolwonk.com
[57] Nick Hansen, "Major Construction at the Sohae Rocket Test Site," 38 North, August 30, 2013, http://38north.org; Nick Hansen, "North Korea Halts Construction of New Long-Range Rocket Launch Facilities," 38 North, July 23, 2013, http://38north.org.
[58] Schilling, John, "North Korea's Space Launch: An Initial Assessment," 38 North, February 9, 2016, http://38north.org.
[59] Rick Gladstone and David E. Sanger, "New Sanctions on North Korea Pass in Unified U.N. Vote," The New York Times, March 7, 2016, www.nytimes.com.
[60] Joseph S. Bermudez Jr, "North Korea's SINPO-class Sub: New Evidence of Possible Vertical Missile Launch Tubes; Sinpo Shipyard Prepares for Significant Naval Construction Program," 38 North, January 8, 2015, http://38north.org.
[61] Jeffrey Lewis, "DPRK SLBM Test," Arms Control Wonk, May 13, 2015, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com.
[62] Sang-Hun, Chang, "North Korea Tests New Rocket Engine, State Media Says," The New York Times, March 24, 2016, www.nytimes.com.
[63] John Schilling, "A New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile for North Korea," 38 North, April 25, 2016.
[64] Kin Tong-Hyung, "Seoul: N. Korea appears to fire submarine-launched missile," AP, April 23, 2016; John Schilling, "A New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile for North Korea," 38 North, April 25, 2016.
[65] John Schilling, "A New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile for North Korea," 38 North, April 25, 2016.
[66] K.J. Kwon, Joshua Berlinger and Jason Hanna, "North Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles, South Korea and U.S. say," CNN, August 3, 2016, www.cnn.com.
[67] Su-Hyun Lee, "North Korea Test-Fires 3 Missiles Toward Japan, Seoul Says," The New York Times, September 5, 2016, www.nytimes.com.
[68] Jeffrey Lewis, "A First Glimpse of North Korea's Elusive ER SCUD," NTI, September 8, 2016, www.nti.org.
[69] Jeffrey Lewis, "A First Glimpse of North Korea's Elusive ER SCUD," NTI, September 8, 2016, www.nti.org.
[70] Su-Hyun Lee, "North Korea Test-Fires 3 Missiles Toward Japan, Seoul Says," The New York Times, September 5, 2016, www.nytimes.com.

Get the Facts on North Korea
  • Conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, and 2016
  • Not party to the CWC and believed to possess 2,500-5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons
  • Active exporter of ballistic missile components, technology, and design data

This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, or agents. Copyright 2016.