Nuclear

As part of NATO's nuclear umbrella, Turkey continues to host approximately 60 to 70 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on its territory at Incirlik Air Base.[5] While there was some speculation in the Turkish press regarding possible conflict between Turkey's leaders and the United States should President Obama's commitment to "seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons" lead to the near-term withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Turkey, both the 2010 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review and the 2010 NATO Strategic Concept postponed a decision concerning the future of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.[6] While the Cold War-era B61 bombs serve little strategic purpose, they provide tangible evidence of a continued American commitment to Turkish security.

Although Turkey's interest in nuclear technology dates to at least 1956, when the government founded the Turkish Atomic Energy Authority (TAEK), Ankara's nuclear capabilities never moved beyond the research and development stages. Thus, while Turkey conducts sophisticated nuclear fuel cycle research—primarily at the Cekmece Nuclear Research and Training Centre (CNRTC) and the Istanbul Technical University—it does not possess nuclear power reactors or industrial-scale enrichment or reprocessing capabilities.[7] Ankara possesses only two small research reactors, the TRIGA Mark II 250-KWt reactor and the TR-2 5MWt reactor.[8] While past decades have witnessed numerous attempts by the government to acquire power reactors, all failed for a variety of political, diplomatic, and economic reasons.[9] However, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AKP-led government is aggressively pursuing nuclear energy. While the government's announcement in 2006 that it would install 5,000MW nuclear energy by 2015 (3 reactors) has encountered numerous feasibility problems—and is unlikely to yield even one reactor by that date—the AKP remains unwaveringly politically committed to the endeavor.[10]

After a troubled tender process in 2008, the government began assessing the sole bid for construction of the first nuclear plant at Akkuyu from Russian-led consortium Atomstroyexport-Inter Rao-Park Teknik. [11] While Turkey's highest administrative court ultimately disapproved the conditions of the tender, the AKP-led government brokered a replacement state-to-state deal with Russia in May 2010 under which a Russian firm will build the Akkuyu plant.[12] Turkey is currently looking for a foreign partner to construct a second nuclear power plant at Sinop. In January 2011, Energy Ministry Undersecretary Metin Kilci asserted, "We want a minimum 20 reactors in operation by 2030. This may not be our formalised plan, but it is our target." [13] While Prime Minister Erdogan has indicated that Turkey will move ahead as planned with nuclear power plant construction, the ongoing crisis at Japan's Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant is creating fierce domestic debate concerning whether Turkey should abandon its nuclear power plans. [14]

Biological

Turkey does not possess biological weapons, nor is it known to have ever undertaken a biological weapons program.[15] Ankara is a party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), having signed and ratified it in 1974, and is a member of the Australia Group to control trade in CBW relevant items.

Chemical

As a member in good standing of theConvention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (CWC), Turkey does not currently possess chemical weapons, and is not known to have ever possessed a chemical weapons program.[16] Ankara signed the CWC in 1993, ratifying it in 1997, and is also a member of the Australia Group, an export control mechanism to control trade in CBW relevant items.

Missile

Turkey is a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Hague Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC). Its ballistic missile arsenal consists of 120 U.S.-supplied MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), possessing a 160km range and a 450g payload capability,[17] along with 12 launchers.[18] Additionally, the government's Project J is developing an indigenous ballistic missile, based on China's WS-1, slated to have a range of 150km and a payload of 150kg.[19]

While Turkey currently enjoys good relations with Iran and other neighbors, the region—and Iran in particular—is home to increasingly sophisticated ballistic missile capabilities. Turkey has therefore sought since the late 1990s to acquire ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems, but its efforts have encountered financial, logistical, and diplomatic obstacles. Given the nascent state of its domestic defense industry, Turkey is largely dependent on external suppliers, particularly the United States and Israel, for the procurement of sophisticated defense systems. BMD systems under consideration by the Turkish government include the U.S. Patriot Advance Capability 3 (PAC-3), Israel's Arrow-2, Russia's S-400 and SU-300PMU2, and China's HQ-9 system.[20] Turkey hosted the PAC system on its territory during the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, and it is the only combat proven ballistic missile defense system.[21] Efforts by Turkey and Israel, beginning in 1997, to initiate a joint BMD project based on the Arrow system contended with U.S. opposition over MTCR rules, because the U.S. "faced the challenge of transferring capabilities without releasing the technologies for manufacturing them."[22] Despite a June 2001 trilateral cooperation agreement, U.S.-Israeli-Turkish cooperative efforts to deploy a jointly produced BMD system in Turkey never took off, in part because Turkey has not yet decisively settled on a U.S. system.[23] Moreover, extremely strained relations between Turkey and Israel since 2010 make any near-term military cooperation between the two countries highly unlikely. [24]

While the United States has pressured Turkey against purchasing any system that could harm NATO interoperability, Ankara is considering all options, including Russian and Chinese offers.[25] In April 2009, Turkey's Defence Industries Undersecretariat (SSM) initiated a request for proposals (RfP) for the $4 billion project to deploy 12 systems, and the government planned to select a winner by the end of 2009.[26] However, as of March 2011, Turkey continues to entertain bids for the BMD tender.[27] Discussions are also ongoing regarding how Turkey will participate in the planned NATO collective missile defense system, which is controversial given Ankara's need to maintain good relations both with NATO and Iran. [28] After significant negotiating, Turkey agreed in principle to the proposed system at the November 2010 NATO Summit, but it remains unclear whether Ankara will permit radar stations on its territory. [29]

Sources:
[1] "Turkey Hosts Proliferation Security Initiative Exercise," U.S. State Department, Bureau of International Information Programs, 24 May 2006, www.america.gov.
[2] For example, see: Dangerous Neighborhood: Contemporary Issues in Turkey's Foreign Relations, ed. Michael S. Radu (London: Transaction Publishers, 2002).
[3]For a recent analysis of why Turkey is unlikely to pursue nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future, heavily emphasizing domestic politics factors, see: Jessica C. Varnum, "Turkey in Transition: Toward or Away from Nuclear Weapons?" in Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century: Volume 2, A Comparative Perspective, eds. William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2010), pp. 229-254.
[4] Sebnem Udum argues that "a nuclear Turkey would be suicidal to Turkey's EU membership bid." Sebnem Udum, "Turkey's Non-Nuclear Weapon Status-a Theoretical Assessment," in The 56th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs: A Region in Transition: Peace and Reform in the Middle East (Cairo, Egypt, 2006), p. 5.
[5] Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, "U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe, 2011," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2011, vol. 67, no. 1, p. 69.
[6] Lale Sariibrahimoglu, "Turkey to face pressure over US nukes on its soil," Today's Zaman, 4 May 2009, www.todayszaman.com; "Active Engagement, Modern Defense," NATO Strategic Concept, Lisbon, 19 November 2010, www.nato.int; and U.S. Department of Defense, "Nuclear Posture Review Report," April 2010, www.defense.gov.
[7] Turkish researchers are familiar with the PUREX process for separating plutonium from spent fuel, however, as CNRTC possesses a small nuclear fuel fabrication pilot plant.
[8] Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the Shadow of Iran, ed. Mark Fitzpatrick, (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2008), p. 64.
[9] Mustafa Kibaroglu, "Turkey's Quest for Peaceful Nuclear Power," The Nonproliferation Review, Spring-Summer 1997, pp. 33-44.
[10] Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the Shadow of Iran, ed. Mark Fitzpatrick, (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2008), p. 65; and "New energy minister: No changes to nuclear policy," Today's Zaman, 7 May 2009.
[11] Emrullah Uslu, "Turkish Government May Approve Construction of a Nuclear Power Plant in April," Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6, no. 53, The Jamestown Foundation, 19 March 2009, www.jamestown.org.
[12] "UPDATE 1-Turkey wants nuclear project firms set up this month," Reuters Africa, 21 September 2010, af.reuters.com.
[13] "Turkey Targets 20 Nuclear Reactors by 2030-official," Reuters, 31 January 2011.
[14] Erisa Dautaj Şenerdem, "Turkish Experts Split in Atomic Debate," Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, 19 March 2011, www.hurriyetdailynews.com.
[15] Mustafa Kibaroglu, "Turkey's Sweet and Sour Policy Against NBC Weapons," Turkish Policy Quarterly, Summer 2004, www.turkishpolicy.com.
[16] Mustafa Kibaroglu, "Turkey's Sweet and Sour Policy Against NBC Weapons," Turkish Policy Quarterly, Summer 2004, www.turkishpolicy.com.
[17] Wyn Q. Bowen and Joanna Kidd, "The Nuclear Capabilities and Ambitions of Iran's Neighbors," in Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran, eds. Henry Sokolski and Patrick Clawson, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, October 2005, p. 71, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil.
[18] Joshua Williams, "World Missile Chart," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006, www.carnegieendowment.org; "Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities and Programs: Turkey," The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, April 2006, www.cns.miis.edu.
[19] Utku Cakirozer, "Turkey tests 'Project J' missile," Jane's Missiles and Rockets, 1 February 2002, www.janes.com; David C Isby, "Turkey and China discuss missile co-operation," Jane's Missiles and Rockets, 1 June 2005, www.janes.com; "Missiles of the World: Turkey: Project J," 1 June 2009, www.missilethreat.com.
[20] Giray Sadik, "Turkey Considers Several Missile Defense Systems," Eurasia Daily Monitor 5, no. 87, 7 May 2008, www.jamestown.org.
[21] "Fact Sheet: Patriot Advanced Capability-3," Missile Defense Agency, U.S. Department of Defense, January 2009, www.mda.mil.
[22] Sebnem Udum, "Missile Proliferation in the Middle East: Turkey and Missile Defense," Turkish Studies 4, no. 3 (Autumn 2003), p.86.
[23] Sebnem Udum, "Missile Proliferation in the Middle East: Turkey and Missile Defense," Turkish Studies 4, no. 3 (Autumn 2003), pp. 87-89.
[24] Ercan Yavuz, "Defense Giants Compete in Turkish Tender for Long-Range Missiles," Today's Zaman, 2 January 2011, www.todayszaman.com.
[25] David Neylan, "Lockheed steps up efforts to sell Turkey missile defense systems," Today's Zaman, 1 May 2009, www.todayszaman.com.
[26] Lale Sariibrahimoglu, "Turkey issues RfP for long-range missiles," Jane's Defence Weekly, 15 May 2009, www.janes.com.
[27] Ercan Yavuz, "Defense Giants Compete in Turkish Tender for Long-Range Missiles," Today's Zaman, 2 January 2011, www.todayszaman.com.
[28] Jessica Varnum, of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, provided analysis of this issue in a guest post for the nonproliferation blog Arms Control Wonk: Jessica C. Varnum, "Musings on Turkey," Arms Control Wonk, 17 November 2010, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com.
[29] Ian O. Lesser, "Turkey, the NATO summit, and after," Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, 26 November 2010, www.hurriyetdailynews.com.