Global Security Newswire

The Christmas Day bombing attempt on a U.S. airliner illustrates that drone strikes and other stepped-up antiterrorism measures have not eliminated al-Qaeda's ability and intent to wage new attacks on the United States, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 3).

Officials have said that U.S. assaults on al-Qaeda training sites, leaders and sources of funding have greatly impaired the terrorist group's ability to mount complicated, large-scale acts of terrorism. However, experts believe that the organization has altered its operations to instead emphasize less-sophisticated assaults that are more difficult to expose and to stop.

The attempted bombing of a passenger airliner landing in Detroit and the November shootings at Fort Hood, Texas, that left 13 people dead are examples of these small-scale attacks.

"The noose is tightening, and al-Qaeda's leadership is accelerating efforts that were probably in place anyway," said Washington-based national security expert Andy Johnson.

Efforts in 2009 to weed out al-Qaeda in Pakistan and Iraq have led the organization to seek new shelter in places such as Yemen, Johnson said.

Already this year, Predator drones have hit Taliban and al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan 12 times, according to the Long War Journal Web site.

U.S. intelligence leaders told Congress last week that the Predator attacks have disrupted al-Qaeda's inner leadership circle. However, they also told lawmakers that the terrorist network has proven adaptive, as shown by its new focus on small-scale attacks that employ single individuals working with traditional explosives.

Al-Qaeda seeks to carry out attacks that make use of "small numbers of terrorists, recently recruited and trained, and short-term plots," said National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair.

"A handful of individuals and small, discrete cells will seek to mount attacks each year, with only a small portion of that activity materializing into violence against the homeland," Blair predicted.

He told a Senate intelligence panel that he was "certain" that extremists would try to attack the United States within six months (Warrick/Finn, Washington Post, Feb. 8).