Global Security Newswire

A research scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, believes that natural outbreaks of infectious diseases such as avian flu pose a far greater threat than acts of bioterrorism, Miller-McCune magazine reported yesterday (see GSN, May 13).

"It is almost inconceivable that any terrorist organization we know of in the world today, foreign or domestic, could on their own develop, from scratch, a bioweapon capable of causing mass casualties on American soil," immunologist William Clark wrote in his latest book, Bracing for Armageddon?

The United States by the end of this year is set to have spent $50 billion on biological preparedness even though only a handful of people have been killed or sickened in recent years by intentional use of disease agents (see GSN, July 18, 2007).

Clark said he began studying the issue while completing an earlier book.

"The more I looked into it, I thought, ‘Jeez, what are these guys talking about?'  What are the odds that a terrorist group, no matter how well financed, would be able to create a bioterror weapon?" he said.  "The (United States) military gave up bioweapons 30 years ago.  They're too undependable; they're too hard to use; they're too hard to make."

Terrorist organizations are not likely to have access to the expertise needed to successfully develop and deploy a biological weapon, Clark argued.  Rather than spending years on a potential failure, terrorists are more likely to carry out high-profile strikes using conventional means, he said.

"Scientifically, it is a crock.  And this really verges into the political, but we've spent $50 billion on it," Clark said.

The scientist said he sees more attention being turned toward pandemic threats.

"Some of the more sober, sophisticated knowledgeable scientists have been looking into this a bit more deeply, realizing that while they may not be entirely convinced that bioterrorism is not a threat, they're starting to get the notion that avian influenza -- or some other natural outbreak -- is almost a slam-dunk," Clark said.  "We get two or three of those a century, historically, as far back as we have records.  There are these outbreaks of natural human pathogens that could wreak utter havoc. … Influenza could kill tens of thousands at the very least" (Matt Palmquist, Miller-McCune, May 19).