Global Security Newswire

China appears to be fielding four new nuclear-ready ballistic missiles and designating an increasing share of its bombs for use on missiles able to travel greater distances, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reported in its latest edition (see GSN, Aug. 26).

Authors Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris estimated that China now possesses 240 nuclear weapons as well as some 140 ballistic missiles fielded on land, 72 missiles with ranges that can hit U.S. targets and 40 missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

However, Beijing has run into problems in developing a sea-based platform for its nuclear warheads, according to the authors. "Efforts to deploy JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles on [the] new Jin-class SSBNs [ballistic-missile submarines] have suffered setbacks. Because of this, China does not have any operational [submarine-launched ballistic missiles]."

"China's main concern is the survivability of its minimum nuclear deterrent, and it spends considerable resources on dispersing and hiding its land-based missiles," Norris and Kristensen wrote. "This makes its SSBN program even more puzzling, for it is much riskier to deploy nuclear weapons at sea, where the SSBNs could be sunk by unfriendly forces."

"The U.S. government has complained for years that China is too opaque regarding its military forces and budgets and that it needs to be more open," the authors noted (see GSN, Oct. 28; Kristensen/Norris, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2011).

Even as it adds to its stockpile of weapons capable of striking the United States, the People's Liberation Army is also aiming missiles at Russia and India, the Times of India reported. The DF-31 is capable of traveling nearly 4,500 miles.

Sources within India's government are concerned that much of the buildup of Chinese nuclear forces is taking place in the Delingha region, which is only about 1,240 miles away from New Delhi.

Indian government personnel fear their country is under particular consideration for targeting by China, unlike other nearby nations such as Nepal, Myanmar and Pakistan.

Kristensen cautioned, though, that China's nuclear posture is focused on countering a number of possible antagonists.

"One factor that can contribute to making the situation better or worse between China and India is of course India's own military modernization along the India-China border as well as India's development of longer-range nuclear missiles that are more directly aimed at China," Kristensen told the Times.

The Bulletin report notes that "deployment of the DF-31, first introduced in 2006, continues at a slow rate; China is using the DF-31 ICBM to replace its older DF-4 missiles. We estimate that China deploys 10-20 DF-31s, with the same number of launchers" (Sachin Parashar, Times of India, Nov. 4).