Global Security Newswire

The worldwide financial catastrophe has surpassed terrorist and WMD threats as the most immediate risk to U.S. security, the nation's top intelligence official testified yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 6, 2008).

The assessment was the first delivered by recently confirmed Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair to the Senate Select Intelligence Committee, an annual ritual for intelligence community leaders.

"The primary near-term concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications," Blair said at the outset of his 45-page prepared statement.

"Economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they are prolonged for a one-to-two-year period, and instability can loosen the fragile hold that many developing countries have on law and order, which can spill out in dangerous ways into the international community," he added in his spoken remarks.

WMD Terror

In the past, WMD threats have topped the list of security threats, particularly after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks raised concerns that al-Qaeda could be pursuing nuclear or other devastating weapons. Blair repeated that concern this year, but gave it much lighter treatment than intelligence officials have in past assessments.

"Conventional weapons and explosives will continue to be the most often used instruments of destruction in terrorist attacks; however, terrorists who are determined to develop [chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear] capabilities will have increasing opportunities to do so, owing to the spread of relevant technological knowledge and the ability to work with CBRN materials and designs in safe havens," he said in his written testimony. He particularly warned of terrorists acquiring biological materials and technology.

Blair suggested that better nonproliferation measures are needed to address the terrorist threat.

"Traditional deterrence and diplomacy constraints may not prevent terrorist groups from using mass-effect weapons," he said during yesterday's hearing. "So, one of the most important security challenges facing the United States is fashioning a more effective nonproliferation strategy with our partners."

Iran

Following recent speculation about how the U.S. assesses Iran's nuclear intentions, Blair said that a controversial 2007 assessment remains "generally still valid today:" Iran has stopped nuclear weaponization activities, but continues to develop its uranium enrichment capacity and its missile programs (see GSN, Feb. 12).

"Tehran, at a minimum, is keeping open the option to develop deliverable nuclear weapons," he told the senators, while encouraging an active international effort to persuade Iran to freeze its contentious nuclear activities.

"Our analysis suggests that some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security and goals might -- if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible -- prompt Tehran to extend the halt to the above nuclear weapons-related activities," said Blair's written testimony. "It is difficult to specify what such a combination might be."

North Korea

Interestingly, North Korea was never mentioned by Blair or any senators during yesterday's hearing, but in his written testimony, he suggested that North Korea was unlikely to use its limited nuclear arsenal unless it faced an existential threat (see related GSN story, today).

"Pyongyang probably views its nuclear weapons as being more for deterrence, international prestige and coercive diplomacy than for warfighting and would consider using nuclear weapons only under certain narrow circumstances," he said. "We also assess that Pyongyang probably would not attempt to use nuclear weapons against U.S. forces or territory unless it perceived the regime to be on the verge of military defeat and risked an irretrievable loss of control."

Blair also repeated recent claims by U.S. officials that North Korea currently has an active uranium enrichment program, but he declined to fully endorse that view (see GSN, Jan. 8).

"The [intelligence community] continues to assess North Korea has pursued a uranium enrichment capability in the past. Some in the intelligence community have increasing concerns that North Korea has an ongoing uranium enrichment program," he said (Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, Feb. 13).