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Iran Achieves Nuclear Breakout Capability, Experts Say

(Feb. 20) -Iran has started to produce nuclear fuel elements for its heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak, shown in 2006 (Getty Images). (Feb. 20) -Iran has started to produce nuclear fuel elements for its heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak, shown in 2006 (Getty Images).

Iran's low-enriched uranium stockpile now contains enough material to build a nuclear weapon, according to an expert analysis released yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 19).

The International Atomic Energy Agency yesterday reported that Iran had enriched 1,010 kilograms of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride, a supply containing roughly 700 kilograms of uranium with a relatively low concentration of the key uranium 235 isotope, the Institute for Science and International Security said in a report.

The low-enriched uranium supply ensures Iran a "breakout" capability if it decided to pursue nuclear arms, but the nation would still need to enrich the lower-grade uranium to weapon-grade levels. Iran has steadfastly denied it has nuclear-weapon ambitions.

Iran has been enriching uranium in only 4,000 of its centrifuges although it has installed more than 5,400 of the machines, the analysis notes. The country also continued running its experimental, higher-speed IR-2 and IR-3 enrichment centrifuges in "research and development mode," according to the ISIS report (see GSN, May 23, 2008).

Iran was producing uranium fuel rods this month for its heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak, the report adds. While IAEA inspectors visited a nearby fuel fabrication facility, they were denied access to the actual reactor site; agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei wrote that the access restriction "could adversely impact the agency's ability to carry out effective safeguards at the facility" (Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire, Feb. 20).

U.S. officials said the U.N. nuclear watchdog's report indicated "another opportunity lost to resolve international concerns. Absent Iranian compliance with its international nuclear obligations and transparency with the IAEA, the international community cannot have confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s program."

"We once again urge Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment-related reprocessing, and heavy water-related activities, to make a full disclosure to the IAEA of all nuclear weapons activities, and to facilitate full IAEA verification of its nuclear program, including through the application of Additional Protocol measures, without delay," spokesman Gordon Duguid said (U.S. State Department release, Feb. 19).

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