Global Security Newswire

Iran promptly insisted its uranium enrichment program was "going on according to plan" after an Israeli newspaper reported a two-month suspension of the effort this week, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 13).

Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Ali Akbar Salehi's denial was accompanied by Iranian Foreign Ministry allegations that Israel had fabricated the report carried by Haaretz.

Diplomats dismissed the possibility of Iran suspending enrichment in a conciliatory gesture to Western governments, which have expressed concern that that the effort could produce nuclear-weapon material. Tehran has insisted its nuclear work is strictly peaceful.

International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors spotted no signs of a uranium enrichment suspension during a visit to the nation's Natanz plant last week, said one-high level diplomat with ties to the U.N. nuclear watchdog. An enrichment suspension would broadcast government weakness during a period of domestic political instability, added a high-level European diplomat with ties to the agency.

Still, reports of the suspension could reflect delays in the effort caused by mechanical problems, officials said.

Iran's work to swiftly boost the program's capacity might be pushing the nation's aging enrichment centrifuges to their breaking point, some experts speculated.

"It would be a surprising and positive development if Iran actually had actually suspended enrichment, but I doubt this is the case. More likely they have stopped or slowed down the installation of additional cascades as they work to overcome the technical problems they have been experiencing with the centrifuges that are already in place,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Operations at Natanz appeared to hit a snag early last year, according to David Albright, head of the Washington-based Institute for Strategic and International Studies

“Possible causes including many broken centrifuges and wear and tear on others (in the first batches installed) that may be reaching the end of their lifetime, which means Iran did not ensure highest manufacturing quality initially,” he said. "We hear from centrifuge experts that Iran may have scaled up centrifuge numbers prematurely. It should have run a fixed, relatively small number... for an extended period of time to work out bugs and gain necessary experience before scaling up.”

Alternatively, Iran could be scaling back work at Natanz and instead emphasizing development of its unfinished Qum uranium enrichment site, which has better defenses against a potential military strike, Albright said. Tehran could also be developing nuclear capabilities at clandestine sites that remain unknown to the West, officials suggested (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, Jan. 13).

Meanwhile, the United States yesterday announced it has charged three men with attempting to send to Iran vacuum pumps and other material that could help the Middle Eastern nation build nuclear weapons. The alleged shipments were said to have violated U.S. trade regulations and sanctions on Iran, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The FBI, the Internal Revenue Service and U.S. Customs and Border Protection began investigating the men after authorities discovered $190,000 in equipment concealed in four crates, bound for the United Arab Emirates, that were declared to contain $2,318 in "spare parts."

"These were educated men. These individuals knew what they were doing," said Los Angeles customs official Louis Rodi.

Under the scheme, which investigators said had extended from June 2005 to April 2009, 56-year-old Jirair Avanessian received hundreds of thousands of dollars for sending "high-dollar vacuum pumps and pump-related" supplies to Iran through the United Arab Emirates. Avanessian was charged Dec. 30 with money laundering and smuggling along with Iranian co-defendant Farhad Masoumian, 42. Amirhossein Sairafi, also an Iranian citizen, was arrested in Germany this week after he was separately indicted last week.

Sixteen shipments from 2006 to 2008 were "strikingly similar" to the material confiscated by authorities, investigators said. The FBI and other agencies are continuing their investigation.

"It's a very significant case for a variety of reasons, said customs spokeswoman Virginia Kice. "These guys weren't exporting sewing machines, after all" (Scott Glover, Los Angeles Times, Jan. 14).

Elsewhere, Kazakhstan announced that IAEA officials would probe the country's nuclear assets into next month, the Qatar News Agency reported yesterday. An IAEA member nation alleged in a recent intelligence report that Kazakhstan intended to supply Iran with unrefined uranium yellowcake.

"Such visits are made each year to inspect our nuclear facilities and activities. The IAEA has not uncovered any irregularities for the past 10 years," Kazakh Deputy Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Aset Magauov told lawmakers in the country.

"Discussions arose earlier about possible uranium shipments to Iran. Again, the Foreign Ministry made a statement on Dec. 30 which says in clear terms that we had no deals and we did not plan any deals with Iran, and there were no conditions for that, either," Magauov said.

"We drew up a list of countries yesterday at lawmakers' request to which we deliver uranium. Our information is transparent. The IAEA has no questions for us," he added, according to the Kazakh newspaper Gazeta (Qatar News Agency, Jan. 13).