Global Security Newswire

Iran indicated in a memorandum to the International Atomic Energy Agency that it would not rapidly ship a large portion of its low-enriched uranium to other countries for further refinement, a crucial part of an agency plan aimed at deferring the Middle Eastern state's ability to produce enough material for a nuclear weapon, diplomats told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 20 ; Heinrich/Entous, Reuters I, Jan. 19).

The written statement was Iran's most definitive statement of opposition to the IAEA proposal, which called for France and Russia to help prepare 70 percent of the nation's stockpiled uranium for use at a Tehran medical research reactor, the Associated Press reported. Iran, which has insisted its nuclear program has no military component, restated a counteroffer already ruled out by the West; it recently expressed willingness to give up small quantities of its low-enriched uranium at a time in simultaneous exchanges for pre-enriched medical reactor fuel (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 19).

Iran previously communicated its rejection of the U.N. proposal to the plan's other intended participants, noted one diplomat in Vienna, Austria (see GSN, Jan. 11).

"I am not sure that they have delivered a formal response but it is clearly an inadequate response. I am not sure that whatever they have done, perhaps today, is any different than what they have done previously," said U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley.

"This written position is a nonevent because it's nothing new, it just makes official what the Iranians have been saying (through the media)," a Western diplomat added (Heinrich/Entous, Reuters I).

Meanwhile, planned adjustments to a 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program could aid in efforts to impose additional U.N. Security Council sanctions on Tehran, according to Reuters. The assessment concluded with "high confidence" that Iran had suspended nuclear weapons research in 2003 and asserted with "moderate confidence" that the work remained suspended as of mid-2007.

Intelligence agencies are expected to reverse that finding, at least relative to Iranian nuclear-weapon research.

"Basically, we're talking about [nuclear weapons] research (resuming) -- not about the Iranians barreling full steam ahead on a bomb program. ... When you're looking at the Iranian nuclear program, nuance matters," one U.S. official said.

Even high-confidence assertions "carry a risk of being wrong," officials said, adding that a moderate-confidence conclusion is "credibly sourced and plausible" but might not have been adequately confirmed.

It remained unclear how the updated analysis would address indications -- emphasized more heavily by European intelligence agencies -- that elements of Iran's formal nuclear weapons program might never have halted in 2003 or might have resumed since that time. It was also uncertain whether portions of the revised U.S. intelligence assessment would be declassified, or when such information could be released (Adam Entous, Reuters II, Jan. 19).

In London, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband yesterday called for new economic penalties aimed at pressuring Iran to seek a resolution to the nuclear dispute, Agence France-Presse reported.

"We believe that financial sanctions... have an important role to play in exerting pressure at the appropriate points in the (Iranian) regime and not affecting the Iranian people," Miliband told legislators (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Jan. 19).

Elsewhere, the United States has been placing a massive cache of military weapons and equipment in Israel, a possible signal that Jerusalem would have Washington's backing in a potential conflict with Iran, United Press International reported yesterday.

The arms buildup, first reported by Defense News, might also be intended to discourage a go-alone Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites (United Press International, Jan. 19).

Tehran yesterday hinted that a strike on its nuclear sites could prompt an Iranian retaliation against U.S. and allied military vessels in the Persian Gulf, AFP reported.

"Why are there so many warships there? The Westerners know that these warships are the best target for operation by Iran if they do anything against (us)," said Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Jan. 19).

Iran also denounced as "illegal" the French extradition hearings of Majid Kakavand, a 37-year-old Iranian man with possible ties to Tehran's nuclear program, AP reported. The United States has alleged that Kakavand imported electronics through Malaysia in breach of U.S. trade regulations.

"We denounce this trial by the French and we think that they, under U.S. pressure, want to put pressure on Iran," said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Jan. 19).