Global Security Newswire

U.S. intelligence services estimate that Iran is between three and five years from acquiring the technical means to build a nuclear weapon if it decided to make the move, government sources told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, April 13).

The Middle Eastern country would obtain the capability in the "next few years" to produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a bomb, but it is most likely to cross that threshold closer to 2015, according to tentative intelligence predictions cited by officials. The United States, Israel and several European powers suspect Iran's nuclear program is geared toward weapons development, but Tehran has insisted its atomic work has no military component.

A forthcoming U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is "essentially complete," but it was still uncertain whether a declassified version of the document would be released, said House Homeland Security Intelligence Subcommittee Chairwoman Jane Harman (D-Calif.). The report is reportedly expected to revise the U.S. intelligence community's 2007 assertion that Iran halted its formal nuclear weapons program in 2003 (see GSN, Oct. 16).

Equipment "problems" at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant could be slowing the nation's nuclear progress, U.S. officials have suggested in recent months.

U.S intelligence agencies doubt suggestions that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in less than 12 months, according to officials. Asked about such suggestions, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said: "I don't believe it" (Adam Entous, Reuters, April 14).

"Most estimates that I've seen haven't changed since the last time we talked about it, which is probably at least a year, maybe more," Agence France-Presse quoted Gates as saying (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, April 13).

Iran today said it has produced about 11 pounds of 20 percent-enriched uranium since it began refining the material in February. The nation has indicated it would use the more refined uranium to operate a medical research reactor in Tehran, but some experts have said producing the material could help the country produce weapon-grade uranium, which has an enrichment level approaching 90 percent.

"So far we have produced five kilos (11 pounds)," Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Ali Akbar Salehi told state media. His country would require "one-and-half kilos [3.3 pounds] of 20 percent-enriched fuel every month" to operate the medical research reactor, he said (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, April 14).

Meanwhile, Tehran submitted an official grievance to the United Nations over the Obama administration's refusal to rule out the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, AFP reported yesterday. The new Nuclear Posture Review indicates the United States would not employ nuclear weapons against non-nuclear nations that are Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty signatories in good standing.

"U.N. members should not tolerate or ignore such nuclear blackmail in the 21st century," states the letter of complaint submitted by Iran, according to the official media report. "The United States, in an illegitimate manner, has identified a non-nuclear country as a target of its atomic weapons and is drawing its military plans on this basis," says the document.

"Such comments are not just expressing an intent, but are part of official documents which formulate the U.S. policy in using atomic weapons against a non-nuclear country which is a [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] member," the letter states. "And so it is a real threat to international peace and security and is also harming the NPT" (Agence France-Presse III, April 14).

In Washington, U.S. President Barack Obama expressed optimism yesterday that China would fall behind an effort to enact new, robust punitive measures aimed at pressuring Iran to halt its disputed nuclear activities, the Associated Press reported. Beijing, which wields veto authority on the U.N. Security Council as one of the body's five permanent members, has repeatedly expressed reservations about adopting a fourth sanctions resolution on Iran.

"Words have to mean something. There have to be some consequences," Obama said at the closing of this week's nuclear security summit (see related GSN story, today).

"The Chinese are obviously concerned about what harm [new sanctions] might have on the economy generally," he said. "Iran is an oil-producing state. ... A lot of countries around the world have trade relationships with Iran and we're mindful of that" (Robert Burns, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 13).

"Here's what I know. The Chinese have sent official representatives to negotiations in New York, to begin the process of drafting a sanctions resolution," AFP quoted Obama as saying.

"The United States is not moving this process alone," he said, referring to Russia's willingness to pursue additional sanctions (Agence France-Presse IV/Google News, April 13).

"We have a strong number of countries on the Security Council who believe this is the right thing to do," the U.S. president said. "But I think these negotiations can be difficult," he said (Burns, Associated Press).

Representatives from the five permanent Security Council member nations -- China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- as well as Germany were set today to meet for a new round of negotiations on sanctions against Iran, AFP reported.

The talks are expected to drag out, and the Security Council might not vote on a finished resolution until June, diplomats said (Agence France-Presse V, April 14).

China yesterday said it was prepared to consider new proposals for addressing the nuclear dispute, but that it still hoped to address the standoff through further dialogue.

"We have taken note that relevant parties have put forward some ideas with regard to how to properly resolve the Iran nuclear issue and they have also put forward the elements of their proposal with the U.N. Security Council," Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said. "We stand ready to discuss these ideas with the relevant parties," he said (Agence France-Presse VI/Yahoo!News, April 13).

German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday expressed optimism that Beijing would eventually back new penalties against Iran.

"I see a positive development, even if it is moving slowly and we can't say whether it will lead to sanctions. ... I'm very hopeful," Merkel said. "China is now part of the process, even though we can't say clearly what the outcome will be" (P. Parameswaran, Agence France-Presse VII/Yahoo!News, April 13).

"Will it happen before the end of the month? We all hope so, but it's not certain," French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said yesterday in a radio interview (Agence France-Presse VIII/Spacewar.com, April 14).

Brazil, a nonpermanent Security Council member, yesterday reaffrimed its opposition to further U.N. sanctions against Tehran, Iran's Press TV reported yesterday.

Previous punitive measures have not helped to steer Iran away from its disputed nuclear work, and diplomatic outreach would be more effective in persuading the nation to do so, Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said (Press TV, April 13).

Elsewhere, Tehran yesterday indicated it would still consider exchanging low-enriched uranium for refined medical reactor fuel, RIA Novosti reported.

Iran previously rejected a U.N. plan that called for France and Russia to enrich a large portion of the nation's stockpiled uranium to the 20 percent level. The proposal was aimed at deferring Tehran's ability to fuel a nuclear weapon long enough to more fully address Western concerns about the its potential nuclear bomb-making capability.

"If the (International Atomic Energy) Agency suggests a country in possession of the 20-percent enriched fuel, we are ready to buy (the fuel). Besides, if there are countries ready for a swap which will fulfill our conditions, we are ready; otherwise, we will produce the fuel (ourselves)," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said (RIA Novosti, April 13).

Iran would respond toughly to any attack, the official added, according to the Xinhua News Agency (Xinhua News Agency, April 13).

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is expected to take part in next month's Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference in New York, AFP quoted Mehmanparast as saying.

"The foreign minister of our country, along with a delegation of experts, will attend this meeting in New York and present the views of the Islamic republic," he said (Agence France-Presse IX/Spacewar.com, April 14).