Global Security Newswire

Iran plans tomorrow to give its formal response to a U.N. proposal for France and Russia to refine a large portion of the Middle Eastern nation's low-enriched uranium, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Oct. 27).

A source quoted by Iran's Mehr News Agency reaffirmed the government's intention to pursue "modifications" to the proposal, which sought to eliminate immediate concerns that Tehran could produce enough material for a nuclear weapon. France, Russia and the United States have indicated their support for the plan, proposed a week ago by International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei at the end of three days of talks between the four nations in Vienna, Austria.

Iran's statement to the U.N. nuclear watchdog would be the nation's "final response" to the proposal, Mehr quoted a source as saying (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Oct. 28).

The New York Times reported that Iran would deliver the message on Friday.

The plan would mean Iran would be one year further away from being able to produce sufficient material for a nuclear weapon and would allow breathing room for diplomats to pursue a resolution to the nuclear dispute, according to the newspaper.

Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi yesterday cautioned his nation against rapidly sending much of its low-enriched uranium to other countries, one step called for under ElBaradei's plan.

"Our basic opinion" is that Iran would be best served if it acquired additional fuel for its Tehran medical research reactor from abroad, the lawmaker added (Robert Worth, New York Times, Oct. 27).

ElBaradei, though, warned that Iran could only bolster confidence in its ostensibly peaceful nuclear ambitions by allowing international management of a large portion of its nuclear material, Reuters reported.

"That's important, absolutely. Our objective is to reduce tension and create a climate of confidence. Removing this material would provide a year for negotiating in peace and quiet," the U.N. nuclear watchdog chief told the French magazine L'Express. "This would allow the Iranians to show that they are speaking the truth, if this is the case, that they are indeed enriching uranium for peaceful purposes," he said.

Washington and other Western governments hope to eventually negotiate a permanent halt to Iran's uranium enrichment program, an effort that can generate low-enriched nuclear power plant fuel but also highly enriched nuclear-weapon material (Parisa Hafezi, Reuters I, Oct. 27).

"If all of [the low-enriched uranium] comes out within a few months then it remains a win-win for the United States, but after a few months it's a loser, because Iran can quickly replace the low-enriched uranium that it sends out. Therefore you don't buy any time," David Albright, head of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, told the Associated Press (Karimi/Murphy, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27).

One former CIA analyst said that significant international pressure must be brought to bear on Iran in order to wrangle any nuclear concessions from its leaders.

"My experience in dealing with a lot of these guys is they won't give up anything until they absolutely have to. They will hold a very hard line. They won't give anything up, at least not up front," Mark Fowler told the Los Angeles Times.

The Iranians "truly believe that if they're not careful, they're going to step into some kind of trap. ... They're going to be literally cheated, embarrassed or backed into a corner," he said (Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 28).

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana argued that no significant revisions should be made to the proposed agreement, the Financial Times reported yesterday.

“The deal was a good deal. I don’t think in principle it requires fundamental changes,” he said (Blitz/Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, Oct. 27).

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned that Iran wanted to have the plan "thoroughly reworked," AP reported.

"It cannot take forever. We wait for answers," he said.

In Tehran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad drew a connection between Iran's nuclear program and Israel's nuclear-weapon capabilities, which have never been officially disclosed.

"When an illegal regime has atomic weapons, it's impossible to block others from the right to have peaceful nuclear energy," Ahmadinejad said (Karimi/Murphy, Associated Press I).

In Washington, U.S. national security adviser Gen. James Jones said that Iran would face consequences if it failed to address disputes over its nuclear activities, Reuters reported.

"Nothing is off the table," Jones said. "Iran now needs to follow through on its commitments."

"We will see in a short amount of time if engagement is able to produce the concrete results that we need and will be prepared if it does not," he said.

Jones endorsed the U.N. uranium transfer proposal.

"If implemented, this arrangement would set back the clock on Iran's breakout capability as it would reduce Iran's stockpile far below the amount needed in order to produce a weapon, and it would take time to reconstitute the amount needed for a breakout," he said, adding that "international consensus" was turning against Tehran's nuclear position (Matt Spetalnick, Reuters II, Oct. 27).

A top Kremlin official, though, said today that quick U.N. Security Council action against Iran was not looming, AFP reported.

"Sanctions on Iran are unlikely in the near future," said Sergei Prikhodko, leading foreign policy adviser to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Oct. 28).

Meanwhile, Washington is taking precautions against a possible nuclear-armed Iran by preparing a European missile defense network and considering the extension of nuclear protection to allies near the Middle Eastern state, former officials and other experts told AP.

Still, the Obama administration avoided commenting on such preparations directly.

"It is our clear policy that an Iranian nuclear weapons capability is unacceptable, and we are working with our allies and partners to ensure that Iran desists from working toward such a capability," said Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Colin Kahl (Robert Burns, Associated Press II/Google News, Oct. 27).