Global Security Newswire

Israel is more likely than not by next July to take military action aimed at curbing Iran's disputed nuclear activities, more than three dozen present and former Israeli policy-makers and other U.S. and Arab state officials indicated in interviews with The Atlantic magazine (see GSN, Aug. 10).

The United States, Israel, and a number of European nations suspect Iran's nuclear program is geared toward nuclear weapons development, despite Tehran's frequent assertions to the contrary. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far tolerated U.S. efforts to dissuade Iran from continuing weapon-sensitive nuclear work through economic pressure and diplomacy. However, officials suggested Jerusalem is likely in December to give up on resolving the atomic standoff peacefully, the magazine reported in its latest issue.

When U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in June quoted intelligence estimates suggesting Iran would need between one and three years to construct a nuclear bomb, Israeli leaders "heard this as nine months from June -- in other words, March of 2011,” one Israeli decision-maker said. “If we assume that nothing changes in these estimates, this means that we will have to begin thinking about our next step beginning at the turn of the year.”

If the Obama administration declined to support military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel would prepare to attack against its Middle Eastern rival regardless of U.S. wishes, The Atlantic reported. “If the choice is between allowing Iran to go nuclear, or trying for ourselves what [U.S. President Barack Obama] won’t try, then we probably have to try,” one high-level Israeli official said (Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic, September 2010).

Iran's military is not capable of staving off an Israeli or U.S. assault, one Russian expert told Interfax.

"On the whole, the Iranian air force's and air defense forces' potential should be evaluated as quite low. Iran cannot disrupt an Israeli, not to mention American, air attack on its nuclear facilities with the use of high-precision weapons and prevent their significant damage or destruction," said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

If Jerusalem or Washington opted to attack Iran, "they are likely to attain their ends on the whole," Pukhov said.

"For the Iranian air force and air defense forces in their current condition, even the simple destruction of several Israeli or U.S. planes would be a huge success," he added. "Despite their nominally large size, the Iranian air force and air defense forces are outdated and polytypic" (Interfax I, Aug. 10)

Meanwhile, a top adviser to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei yesterday rebuffed reports he had declared Tehran's willingness to address its nuclear efforts in talks with Washington, Agence France-Presse reported.

"This report that 'we are ready for talks with America about the nuclear program' is denied," Ali Akbar Velayati's office said in released remarks, according to state media (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Aug. 10).

A prominent Russian lawmaker denounced Iran's decision to begin producing 20 percent-enriched uranium with a second array of enrichment centrifuges, Interfax reported yesterday.

The Persian Gulf nation in February began refining low-enriched uranium from its stockpile to 20 percent, ostensibly to produce isotopes for a medical research reactor in Tehran. The United States and other Western powers, though, have feared the process could help Iran produce nuclear-weapon material, which has an enrichment level around 90 percent.

"The activation of a second cascade of centrifuges for enriching uranium to 20 percent purity is nothing but a demonstration that the Iranian government rejects the resolutions by the U.N. Security Council, including the latest one, which tightens sanctions against Iran," Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachyov said. The U.N. body adopted its latest penalties against Iran in June.

The move "gives rise to a host of alarming questions," Kosachyov said. "This also undermines the prospect itself of forging an agreement with the international community."

"This position creates a vicious circle inciting the world community to further tighten sanctions instead of settling the problem in essence," the lawmaker said. "But Tehran leaves no other choice to the world" (Interfax II, Aug. 10).

A high-level South Korean official today said his nation would move deliberately in considering whether to pursue unilateral punitive measures against Iran, the Yonhap News Agency reported.

"We will review the issue of sanctions on Iran without a hurry after taking the international trend into account and having sufficient consultations with related countries," the official said.

The source's statement hinted that Seoul could hold off on a final decision until October, when the United States is expected to finalize its own independent penalties targeting Tehran, according to Yonhap (Yonhap News Agency, Aug. 10).

South Korea has detected signs of illicit conduct by Iran's Bank Mellat, a high-level official with the nation's Finance Ministry told the Korea Times on Monday.

"We indeed found out that the Bank Mellat branch in Seoul was involved in activities banned by the United Nations," the official said.

Iran's ambassador to South Korea said Monday the bank was involved in no prohibited dealings.

The South Korean official added: "The United States wants us to follow their lead to impose strong sanctions, but we told them that the evidence is not strong enough to order a shutdown."

"The announcement of punitive measures will take some time," a South Korean Financial Supervisory Service official added (Cho Jin-seo, Korea Times, Aug. 10).

Brazil yesterday indicated it would implement the latest Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran, AFP reported. The South American nation joined Turkey in voting against the measure.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva agreed to back the penalties "because there is a tradition of carrying out (U.N.) Security Council resolutions, including those we don't agree with," Foreign Minister Celso Amorim said (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Aug. 11).

Cutting Iran off from the international community "will not contribute to peaceful solution to the [nuclear] issue," the Xinhua News Agency quoted the official as saying.

"In general, isolation contributes to more radicalism, only hits the poorest and most vulnerable, as we saw in Iraq. These sanctions that hinder trade make the country more dependent on others instead of allowing a more diversified contact," Amorim said (Xinhua News Agency, Aug. 10).

Toyota Motor Corp. today announced it would end vehicle shipments to Iran due to international penalties imposed over the nation's nuclear work, AFP reported. Other Japanese firms indicated they were conducting similar assessments, although they have not yet ceased all exports to Iran.

"We have been strictly scrutinizing shipments to Iran and will do so more strictly from now on, in line with new sanctions," a Mitsubishi Heavy Industries representative said (Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, Aug. 11).