Global Security Newswire

Independent analysts believe a pending successor to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty could permit the United States and Russia to each maintain hundreds of launch-ready nuclear warheads in addition to the maximum number the countries are formally allowed under the pact, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, March 30).

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last week approved the final terms of the new treaty, which would officially require their nations to both lower their respective strategic arsenals to 1,550 deployed warheads. Each country's fielded nuclear delivery vehicles -- missiles, submarines and bombers -- would be capped at 700, with another 100 allowed in reserve.

According to experts, though, the agreement would count a nuclear bomber as a single warhead, despite each aircraft's ability to carry many such weapons. If the analysis is correct, the deal would mandate few reductions in nuclear-weapon deployments beyond those required by the 2002 Moscow Treaty, the Times reported.

“It’s creative accounting,” arms analyst Pavel Podvig said. “They found a way of making reductions without actually making them, and they were happy to accept that because nobody wanted to go to more serious measures.”

"It's nuts," added Hans Kristensen, head of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. "Absolutely nuts."

Due to the loophole, the United States could avoid counting roughly 450 of its 2,100 presently deployed warheads, while around 860 weapons in Russia's 2,600-warhead arsenal would not be counted, Kristensen said. As a result, the United States would only need to place 100 deployed warheads in storage and Russia would only need to remove 190 weapons.

“On paper, the White House has been saying it’s a 30 percent cut in warheads” said Kingston Reif, deputy head of the Washington-based Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. “Well, it is on paper. But when you break it down, you see that the cut isn’t quite as significant.”

The White House contested the expert assertions, arguing they were based on incomplete data and that the treaty would still reduce the number of allowable launch-ready warheads by 30 percent for each country.

"We think that is a very significant reduction," White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said.

"We wanted to go lower. This was a negotiation with the Russians, not the Arms Control Association," a high-level Obama administration official added.

Obama and Medvedev are expected to sign the new deal on April 8 in Prague.

Rather than seeking out major weapons cuts, the new treaty was aimed largely at establishing a new framework for each nation to monitor the nuclear assets of the other side, according to the Times. By updating the START verification system, the countries intended to help pave the way for further nuclear reductions.

“Confidence-building, that’s what it’s about,” Kristensen said. “This is a step that will help repair relations.”

In addition, the 2002 treaty's lack of specificity enabled Russia to avoid including its bomber aircraft, the Times reported. The new regulations are preferable, Obama administration officials said.

Bombers were of less concern than other delivery systems because they are less capable of carrying out first strikes, the officials added (Peter Baker, New York Times, March 30).