Global Security Newswire

There was no indication on of any early problems in North Korea's process of establishing new leadership following the death of Kim Jong Il, the Associated Press reported on Thursday (see GSN, Dec. 21).

Kim Jong Un, the deceased dictator's youngest son and handpicked successor, is expected for now to share leadership with an uncle and the nation's powerful military.

The United States and the North's neighbors have emphasized the need for stability in the impoverished, isolated nation that has active nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs.

"This appears to be a relatively smooth transition on the peninsula, and we hope it stays that way," said U.S. Defense Department spokesman George Little.

The militaries of both Koreas are reported to have increased their alert status, but South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Yoon Won-sik said Seoul had not seen worrisome armed forces activity in the North.

The state-run North Korean Rodong Sinmun sought to further cement the younger Kim's position by calling on citizens to "rally, rally and rally behind great comrade Kim Jong Un and faithfully uphold his leadership." Kim Jong Un is "the outstanding leader of our party, military and people and a great successor," the newspaper added (Associated Press/ABC News, Dec. 22).

It remains to be seen how much authority will be held by Kim Jong Un, who is believed to be in his late 20s and lacking the years of grooming for power that his father received. His first military directive, delivered shortly before the North declared on Monday that Kim Jong Il had suffered a fatal heart attack, required all military personnel to suspend exercises and head back to their installations, Agence France-Presse reported on Wednesday.

"This is clear-cut evidence that Kim Jong Un has secured a firm grip on the military," a South Korean government source told the Yonhap News Agency.

"Jong Un has already established solid control over the military and intelligence authorities since he was anointed as successor to his father in September last year," according to Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute in Seoul (Agence France-Presse/Hindustan Times, Dec. 21).

An important sign would be who takes over particular spots in the North Korean government, the London Guardian quoted issue specialists as saying.

"This is what's crucial and we have to look in the coming days, months and even years," said Leonid Petrov of the University of Sydney in Australia. "We have to look carefully at who is going to occupy [Kim Jong Il's] seat as chairman of the National Defense Commission (NDC).

"If it is Jang Song Thaek (the young general's uncle) it means Kim Jong Un will be more of a ceremonial figure. If he goes straight to the chairman's seat -- which would be logical -- he will be very firmly put in the driving seat of the state, party, army and even assembly," Petrov said (Tania Branigan, London Guardian, Dec. 21).

Pyongyang does not appear to have cut off the potential for contact with Washington, suggesting that talks on food assistance and denuclearization could resume once the formal 11-day mourning period ends, AP reported. Prior to Kim Jong Il's death, the longtime foes were reportedly approaching a deal under which the United States would provide food assistance to North Korea, which in turn would halt uranium enrichment operations. Such a suspension has been among the top U.S. conditions for resuming six-nation negotiations aimed at shuttering the North's nuclear-weapon efforts.

The State Department said no talks are anticipated this week and that it did not expect to hear much from the North before the mourning time closes on Dec. 29.

"We want to be respectful of the period of mourning, but the ball's in North Korea's court," department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said. "We are also appreciative that this is not a moment in Pyongyang where we're likely to have fresh instructions until after the mourning period."

Seoul's top nuclear negotiator was in China on Thursday to discuss strategies for resuming the six-nation negotiations last held more than three years ago, AP reported (Associated Press).

The leaders of China and Japan are scheduled to meet next week, though the session probably would not offer anything more than a rhetorical consensus on the importance of avoiding conflict in the region, Reuters reported.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Sunday for meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

"Of course they will make comments like, 'We will maintain close communication for the sake of the peninsula's stability,' but not much more than that," said said Tokyo-based analyst Hiroko Maeda. "No one knows how the situation in the North will develop."

"The six-party talks are likely to be on hold for some time, and so is any progress on the North Korean nuclear issue, but there'll be a consensus between China and Japan -- as well as the United States, South Korea and Russia -- on preserving stability on the Korean Peninsula," said Sun Cheng, a Japanese studies professor at the China University of Political Science and Law in Beijing.

Observers have expressed concern that Pyongyang might step up its provocations to demonstrate the new leader's strength. The North holds missiles that could hit Japan.

Beijing, meanwhile, worries that North Korean refugees might flood into China should the Kim regime collapse, and about the potential loss of a buffer state to U.S. influence (Kiyoshi Takenaka, Reuters, Dec. 22).