Global Security Newswire

North Korea appears to have resumed reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods at a previously shuttered facility, the Chonsun Ilbo reported today (see GSN, May 26).

Steam has been spotted emanating from the plutonium reprocessing plant at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, suggesting that the North might be trying to produce weapons-grade material in the wake of Monday's underground nuclear test.

Operations at the Yongbyon facility, which lies about 60 miles north of Pyongyang, were halted as part of a 2007 deal under which the North agreed to dismantle its nuclear sector in exchange for various benefits from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. However, satellite images have documented increased activity at the complex in recent weeks, as the North reacted to U.N. condemnation of its April 5 rocket launch (see GSN, May 13).

Experts had predicted it would take two to four months for the reclusive nation to restart its reprocessing activities at Yongbyon, according to the newspaper. North Korea is estimated to hold roughly 8,000 spent fuel rods, which could yield 13-18 pounds of weapons-grade plutonium -- enough to build one nuclear bomb (Chosun Ilbo, May 27).

The North has also test-fired six short-range missiles this week -- three on Monday and three yesterday, the Yonhap News Agency reported (Yonhap News Agency, May 27).

The United States yesterday told a small gathering of key international players that Pyongyang's actions must be addressed "directly and seriously," the Associated Press reported.

The meeting at the United Nations involved envoys from the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- along with Japan and South Korea. On the agenda was a possible U.N. resolution to penalize North Korea for its most recent provocation.

"I think we are off to a very good start," U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said after the meeting, speaking for all the participants. She added that it might "take some time" before the nations settle on an appropriate response: "We are thinking through complicated issues that require very careful consideration."

"Everybody has certain ideas, and we went around ... and we have agreed to meet again," said Yukio Takasu, Japan's ambassador to the United Nations. "Everyone is seeking instructions from capitals."

France wants any resolution to involve additional penalties on Pyongyang, said its ambassador, Jean-Pierre Lacroix. He said other participants at the meeting agreed on the need for sanctions that would follow those issued in the wake of North Korea's nuclear and missile tests in 2006.

There is speculation that the nature of the U.N. response to North Korea's recent actions would turn on whether Russia and China -- which have closer ties than the others to Pyongyang -- are willing to cooperate.

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin said only that his nation wanted a "strong resolution," while Chinese Ambassador Zhang Yesui deferred to Rice's statement (Edith Lederer, Associated Press I/Yahoo News, May 26).

Analysts have offered varied assessments of Monday's nuclear test, but many say it was significantly more successful than North Korea's 2006 blast, AP reported.

Based on seismic measurements, Hamburg University's Martin Kalinowski estimated that the underground explosion probably yielded anywhere between three and eight kilotons of energy -- probably about four. That's the equivalent of detonating 4,000 tons of TNT.

The 2006 blast was estimated to have yielded only half a kiloton.

However, "it's really hard to know what the yield actually is," said Jeffrey Lewis, who heads the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation. Lewis said the warhead might have yielded as little as 1.5 kilotons -- potent enough that you "wouldn't want [it] dropped on your house, but it's nowhere near what was dropped on Hiroshima."

The atomic bombs the United States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 each yielded between 15 and 21 kilotons.

Pyongyang's next challenge, said missile expert Charles Vick, would be to reduce the weight of the warhead by half and fit it to the tip of a missile.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates plans to travel to Singapore on Saturday to meet with defense ministers from Japan and South Korea. "Undoubtedly, the developments in North Korea over the weekend will be a focus of that conversation," said a Pentagon spokesman (Pamela Hess, Associated Press II/Google News, May 26).

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday called Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and asked that Moscow stand with Washington against the North Korean nuclear test, Agence France-Presse reported.

Clinton "reiterated the importance of a quick, unified response to North Korea's provocative action," according to State Department spokesman Ian Kelly. "She, of course, remained actively engaged in making sure that the international community conveys a strong message to North Korea that North Korea will pay a price for the path they are on if they don't reverse that particular course they are on now."

In terms of the sort of U.N. Security Council resolution Washington is pushing for, Kelly offered only adjectives. "We look forward to working with our colleagues on the council to craft a strong, unequivocal and unified response to North Korea's grave violation of international law," he said.

Moscow gave no indication it would support strong sanctions against the North.

"The reaction should be fairly serious, because the authority of the Security Council is at stake," a source within Russia's Foreign Ministry told the news agency Interfax. However, "a blockade, isolation, any sort of cordons sanitaires are not a subject of discussion" (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, May 26).

Lavrov said today he would support a "tough" U.N. resolution against North Korea, but only if it seems it would be productive in curbing proliferation, AFP reported.

"The U.N. Security Council should speak out toughly and should develop such measures which in practice would help prevent a further erosion of the nuclear arms nonproliferation regime," he said at a news conference. "We should also find ways in this resolution towards the creation of conditions to resume six-party talks. We should not look to punish for the sake of punishment only. ... The problem can only be settled through talks" (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, May 27).

Meanwhile, Russia is hedging against the possibility that the contretemps might devolve into nuclear war, Reuters reported.

"The need has emerged for an appropriate package of precautionary measures," an unnamed security source is quoted as saying to Interfax. "We are not talking about stepping up military efforts but rather about measures in case a military conflict, perhaps with the use of nuclear weapons, flares up on the Korean peninsula."

However, a Russian Foreign Ministry official told the ITAR-Tass news agency that a nuclear conflict is seen as unlikely. "We assume that a dangerous brinksmanship, a war of nerves, is under way," the official said, "but it will not grow into a hot war" (Oleg Shchedrov, Reuters, May 27).

Russia and China, North Korea's leading ally -- hold veto power on the Security Council, which could be a problem for the United States and other nations seeking sanctions against Pyongyang, AFP reported.

Experts predict that China would resist further isolating the Stalinist regime.

"It's clear that the Chinese are moving closer to the position, but I don't know if this means close enough," said Scott Snyder, a Korea analyst. China would probably be more amenable to slapping individual members of the regime with financial sanctions, as the United Nations did the last time North Korea conducted a nuclear test" (Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, May 26).

Japan has already decided to impose sanctions of its own, outlawing all exports to the North, Kyodo News reported.

The proposed trade proscription is not expected have much of an effect, though, since Japan does not ship muchto North Korea (Kyodo News/JapanToday.com, May 27).