Global Security Newswire

U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the North Korean nuclear weapon detonated Monday failed to completely explode, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 12). "The working assumption is that what happened, more likely than not, was an attempted nuclear test that fell far short of being successful," said one U.S. official. There has been no detection yet of radioactive material that would prove Pyongyang's claim of conducting a successful nuclear test.

The size of the blast has been assessed by the most recent intelligence estimates to be 0.2 kilotons.  A plutonium bomb, which Pyongyang is believed to have used, would be expected to produce a blast of five to 20 kilotons.

Conventional high explosives meant to compress the plutonium to begin the nuclear explosion are likely to have caused the blast detected Monday, one official said.  "There was a yield that was in the several hundred ton range, but it at least partially failed," another official told the Times.

The underground cavern used in the test might also have muffled seismic waves from a full but small nuclear explosion, according to an alternate theory.  Another explanation is that the test was simply a bluff involving conventional explosives.

It could take weeks to fully analyze data collected after the test, officials said.

"It is not yet determined -- with any degree of assurance -- what exactly they tested," said Marine Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Oct. 13).

South Korean Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung warned today that Pyongyang might be working on nuclear warheads that could fit on to missiles, the Associated Press reported.

"The South Korean government believes North Korea has been developing low-grade nuclear bombs, and they may be moving to develop (nuclear weapons) small enough to out on guided missiles as the next stage," he told lawmakers (Associated Press I, Oct. 13).

A North Korean defector said yesterday his former nation has a number of nuclear weapons that could be deployed in the event of war, Agence France-Presse reported.

Pyongyang reached a deal in 1996 with Pakistan for transfer of uranium-based nuclear technology, said Hwang Jang Yop, a former secretary for the ruling Workers Party of Korea.

"North Korea reprocessed half of its 1,800 fuel rods in 1993," he said (Agence France-Presse I/Gulf Times, Oct. 12).

U.N. diplomats yesterday moved closer to reaching agreement on sanctions to be imposed on North Korea in response to the nuclear test, AP reported.

"We have made very substantial progress," said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton.  The ambassadors from China and Russia agreed.

Washington hoped to see the resolution approved today.

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin said yesterday a vote on the document should not occur until after senior Russian and Chinese officials meet today and tomorrow in Moscow, the Washington Post reported (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Oct. 13).

The United States agreed to eliminate language in the resolution that would leave the door open for use of military force against Pyongyang, AP reported.  Such action or other additional measures would require a new U.N. Security Council resolution.

A U.S. draft circulated last night also revised what had been a blanket arms embargo on North Korea.  The new embargo includes a specific list of weapons, including missiles, tanks, warships and combat aircraft.

The draft states that the Security Council would take action under Chapter 7 of the U.N. charter, which allows for use of military force, but would only use measures from Article 41, which does not.

It maintains a ban on sale or shipping of luxury items to North Korea, along with material that could be used to produce weapons of mass destruction.  The resolution demand's Pyongyang's immediate return to six-party talks on its nuclear program and that it refrain from further missile or nuclear tests.

The presidents of China and South Korea met yesterday in Beijing to discuss the resolution.  They agreed to "support appropriate sanctions that are necessary for realizing denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," said South Korean security adviser Song Ming-soon.

President George W. Bush and other senior White House officials met yesterday with a senior Chinese representative, State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan, AP reported (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 13).

Japan today moved ahead with unilateral sanctions against North Korea, AFP reported.  As of midnight today, North Korean imports and ships are barred from Japan, said Chief Cabinet Secretary Tasuhisa Shiozaki.

He expressed no concern over Pyongyang's threat to take "strong countermeasures" in response to Japanese sanctions.

"The government is responsible for protecting the country and its people," he said.  "We are taking appropriate measures, as we usually do" (Harumi Ozawa, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 13).

Pace said yesterday the United States has the available military force to go to war against North Korea if needed, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Roughly 200,000 troops are now in Afghanistan and Iraq, he said.  That leaves another 2 million that could be called to war in Asia.

Due to the number of ground forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, a new war would significantly involve the Navy and Air Force, he said.  He noted that guidance systems used to aim bombs are also committed in the Middle East.

"You wouldn't have the precision in combat going to a second theater that you would if you were only going to the first theater of war," Pace said.  "You end up dropping more bombs potentially to get the job done, and it would mean more brute force" (Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 13).

New equipment and increased global collaboration would be necessary to fulfill Bush's pledge to make Pyongyang "fully accountable" for any transfers of nuclear material, the New York Times reported.

Three present efforts are models for a future system to control such nuclear smuggling, said Robert Joseph, undersecretary for arms control and international security.  They are the Proliferation Security Initiative (see GSN, Sept. 27), Megaports Initiative (see GSN, July 10), and the Second Line of Defense (see GSN, May 25).

"We are putting in place the ability to detect, disrupt and deter North Korean proliferation activities," Joseph said.  "The announced North Korean nuclear test will provide impetus to further expand these capabilities, particularly in Asia."

A team of nuclear experts at the U.S. Defense Department could analyze fallout from acts of nuclear terrorism to determine the source of the atomic material, the Times reported.  The International Atomic Energy Agency also has records from North Korea, collected before the agency was expelled from the nation, which could indicate if Pyongyang provided material for a bomb intercepted in transfer or used in an attack.

Administration officials declined to discuss in detail what Bush meant by "fully accountable."

"These declarations are constructed with some elasticity, specifically to raise questions and doubts in the mind of the object," said one official (Shanker/Sanger, New York Times, Oct. 13).