Global Security Newswire

The man who has acknowledged carrying out last week's mass killings in Norway claimed in his online treatise that he was allied with other right-wight militant groups, some of whom he said were pursuing acquisition of unconventional weapons, the Federation of American Scientists noted on Wednesday (see GSN, July 27).

Anders Breivik, who has claimed responsibility for the Friday bombing of an Oslo government building and the subsequent shooting rampage on a nearby island, wrote in his 1,500-page manifesto that his associates "are already in the process of attempting to acquire chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear materials."

Federation of American Scientists experts for the most part concurred that Breivik does not represent a danger so long as he is behind bars and that his theories regarding unconventional weapons are of questionable credibility. Nonetheless, "any proper risk assessment must analyze the treatise's content," the organization said in a press release.

"Given the operational sophistication of Breivik's attacks, and the overall operational security that he maintained for years, it is axiomatic that Breivik's threats should be considered in great detail," FAS Terrorism Analysis Project Director Charles Blair said provided comments.

The independent scientific organization concluded that "Breivik's comprehension of the fabrication and employment of CBRN concludes that he was motivated and capable of credibly pursuing low-end CBRN attacks -- specifically those likely to result in mass effect as opposed to mass destruction," according to the FAS release.

In the event the 32-year-old Norwegian was not a lone-wolf terrorist, it is plausible that his compatriots possess the same if not deeper knowledge about the equipment needed for particular types of unconventional weapons, the release states.

"They may have access to the necessary biological agents and technologies necessary to actualize Breivik's more ambitious plans for a CBRN attack," Virtual Biosecurity Center manager Kelsey Gregg said in released comments (Federation of American Scientists release, July 27).

Breivik claimed to be a member of a group of new Knight Templars who seek to wage strikes against "cultural Marxists" and "multiculturalists" who they blame for allowing Islam to spread throughout Europe, according to the FAS report by Blair, Gregg and Jonathan Garbose. "While it is tempting to dismiss his threats as hyperbole from a 'crazy loner' it is entirely possible that Breivik is, as he claims to be, a member of a neo-Templar group," the authors wrote.

"Revelations in the last few days suggest that Breivik may not have been acting alone. Moreover, Breivik may have links to clandestine, well-funded, sophisticated, and violent nonstate groups," the report states.

Oslo District Judge Kim Heger noted Breivik's assertion in court that there were "two more cells in [his] organization."

Weapons of mass destruction should be used against two tiers of foes ranging from standing heads of state, top government officials and lawmakers, and politicians who promote multiculturalism, according to the manifesto.

"Knights Templar will for the future consider working with the enemies of the EU/U.S. hegemony such as Iran (South Korea is unlikely), al-Qaeda, al-Shabab or the rest of the devout fractions of the Islamic Ummah with the intention for deployment of small nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in Western European capitals and other high priority locations," the document states. "Justiciar Knights and other European Christian martyrs can avoid the scrutiny normally reserved for individuals of Arab descent and we can ensure successful deployment and detonation in the location of our choice."

Breivik wrote that chemical warfare materials would have value in carrying out "surgically precise attacks with a medium to low amount of casualties." His document mentions "nerve agents, ricin, lewisite and mustard gas"; it recommends using "chemical bullets" or disseminating toxic chemicals "through ventilation systems of buildings where there are concentrations of category A and B traitors."

He advised that chemical warfare attacks only be conducted if "conventional approaches" are unsuccessful in achieving political aims.

The suspect asserted that he or his adherents would not employ nuclear or radiological weapons before 2020. He recommended in the meantime that like-minded people utilize traditional, chemical and biological weapons. Breivik gave particular attention in his manifesto to concentrated liquid nicotine, ricin and anthrax.

"Fortunately, Breivik neglected the obvious and relatively easy to acquire BWs such as botulinum neurotoxin and foot and mouth disease -- both of which could have massive social and economic ramifications if deployed effectively," the FAS report notes. "Aeorsolized anthrax, nicotine, and ricin are considered deadly BWs, but Breivik only mentions the use of aersolized anthrax. He focuses instead on using un-aerosolized ricin and nicotine for armed assaults.

"Breivik’s understanding of the social implications of BW attacks is well-grounded and he is capable of making and/or obtaining ricin and nicotine for assault use. However, Breivik’s ability to obtain weapons grade anthrax and toxins is less likely," the report authors concluded.

He copied word-for-word information on the technical aspects of radiological weapons from Wikipedia, displaying no original research of his own. However, Breivik did understand the utility of a using conventional explosives to disperse radioactive material "as a weapon of mass disruption as opposed to a weapon of mass destruction," the FAS analysis notes.

"Our radiological attacks (RDDs) will cause minimal to no civilian casualties but it will create devastating ideological, physiological and economical damage on the targeted cultural Marxist/multicultural regime,' Breivik theorized.

He noted that Russia, additional one-time Soviet states and the United States all have significant amounts of radiological substances "unsecured ... (and) in the strangest of places." He also provided a list of 10 dangerous radioactive sources that are commercially available.

The FAS analysts noted that Breivik, unlike well-known Islamist terrorist organizations, demonstrated "a broad understanding of the technologies underlying nuclear weapons. While entire sections are lifted from Wikipedia (for example, the nuclear fuel cycle), his analysis is sound."

The Norwegian man also accepted that it is not feasible to build a crude nuclear bomb in the near or midterm. Rather, "theft or unauthorized access to nuclear weapons remains the goal for Breivik’s putative Templar co-revolutionists, both extant and emerging," the experts stated.

Between 2030 and 2070, it could become possible to obtain a working nuclear bomb if "European cultural conservative" elements can "seize control of a British or French nuclear storage facility of if we manage to negotiate with the Russians, Indians or Israelis," Breivik speculated.

The FAS authors reaffirmed the low probability that Breivik's "supposed Knights Templar allies" would be able to obtain and set off a nuclear weapon. However, they stated that "the treatise's handling of nuclear weapons is unique.

"It carefully considers the preservation of Breivik’s alleged constituency through the employment of only low-yield warheads. Second, the treatise is unique in that it considers multiple state sources for nuclear weapons, many in the context of cells working with Knights Templar."

In their preliminary conclusions, the authors noted "profound concerns" raised by Breivik's writings.

"First, the question of co-conspirators: numerous sections of the treatise mention ideologically aligned clandestine military cells that, within the larger struggle of resisting the Islamization of Europe, presently seek CBRN capabilities," the FAS analysis states. "Assuming the existence of such cells, it is entirely possible that the attacks in Oslo and Utoya Island and supposed extant and forthcoming attempts to secure, weaponize, and deliver certain CBRN agents are directly linked in a campaign of violent revolution the opening salvos of which began in earnest on July 22."

More worrisome and realistic is that Breivik's manifesto might point the way for others interested in using weapons of mass destruction, the experts stated.

"Dismissing Breivik’s 'WMD idea' as 'not realistic' dangerously overlooks important nuances that give his CBRN impulses added validity and applicability to subsequent violent extremists," they wrote (Federation of American Scientists report, July 27).