Global Security Newswire

The Obama administration is examining options for maintaining U.S. oversight of Russia's nuclear arsenal after the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in December, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 19).

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed in July to cut their nations' respective deployed strategic nuclear arsenals to between 1,500 and 1,675 warheads under a successor to the 1991 agreement. That would be a notable cut from the 2,200-warhead limit the states are required to meet within three years under the 2002 Moscow Treaty. The leaders also agreed to restrict strategic delivery vehicles on each side to between 500 and 1,100.

Even if the powers prepare a replacement treaty while the pact remains in force, U.S. and Russian lawmakers would not be able to ratify the new agreement the before START expiration on Dec. 5, according to the Times. The 1991 arrangement permits as many as 30 U.S. officials in Russia to verify Moscow's adherence to the deal's nuclear-weapon limits; Russia is also permitted to keep tabs on U.S. nuclear-weapon activities.

“We are working on options to provide transparency on strategic forces during the time before the new treaty enters into force. But I think it’s premature to discuss specifics of any transparency options. Our focus is on getting the new treaty finished," one high-level Obama administration official said last week.

If the sides agreed on a START replacement ahead of the pact's expiration, Washington might pursue a "provisional application" of the new agreement's rules until it receives Senate approval.

If the powers cannot settle on a new agreement by Dec. 5, the United States might seek an executive agreement with the Kremlin that could extend many of the inspection arrangements established under the current treaty. Some U.S. legislators have said the Senate Foreign Relations Committee should be allowed to provide input on such a deal; administration sources have said senior senators could offer advice on the agreement, although it would ultimately require no form of legislative approval.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week discussed possible means of continuing verification checks. The nations have yet to agree on any definite fallback measures.

Meanwhile, Republicans have raised concerns about possible Russian plans to deploy new ballistic missiles armed with multiple independently targeted warheads. In addition, both Democratic and Republic lawmakers have urged the administration to consider how U.S. nuclear arsenal modernization options could be affected by a new START successor (Shanker/Baker, New York Times, Oct. 20).

Medvedev said Moscow would seek to maintain the number of nuclear weapons needed to protect the security of Russia and its partners, Interfax reported.

"We are ready to reduce the number of delivery means for strategic offensive arms to less than one third of the current amount. Talks now under way in Geneva exactly aim to forge a new legally binding Russian-American agreement to cut and limit strategic offensive arms, which is to seal this particular level. We are doing everything to advance towards the signing of a relevant document," Medvedev told Vecernji Novosti.

"When we are talking about nuclear disarmament, we assume that nuclear weapons cannot be used in practice. And we remember that nuclear weapons have been the guarantor of strategic stability and global security for many decades. Today, as before, we think it is necessary to maintain a balance of forces with the United States. On our part, we are being guided by the belief that nuclear arsenals must be maintained at a minimal level required for ensuring Russia and its allies' national security," Medvedev said.

"It is in our common interests to resolve the problem of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. This would be a powerful instrument for creating a favorable international situation in general," he said (Interfax, Oct. 19).

“I’ve talked to negotiators in both Russia and the U.S., and both have said they’ve been told by their presidents to deliver a treaty by Dec. 5. I think the deadline will be hit," Ploughshares Fund President Joseph Cirincione told Russia Today.

“President Medvedev was talking about a 30-percent cut -- I think it’s easy for us to do,” he added. “There are some difficult issues still to be resolved, like how to exactly count the weapons, potential for uploading, putting the weapons back on, but I think they can be worked out with patience and perseverance on both sides.”

Additional inspections would be essential to reliably enforce the new agreement, he said: "We’ll have to do that in order to really count the weapons -- not just looking at them from satellite photos and seeing how many silos there are. To really count the weapons, you have to have intrusive inspections, more than we had in the past" (Russia Today, Oct. 20).