Global Security Newswire

U.S. and Russian diplomats have effectively abandoned efforts to negotiate a replacement to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ahead of the pact's Dec. 5 expiration date, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Sept. 14).

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed in July to cut their nations' respective deployed strategic nuclear arsenals to between 1,500 and 1,675 warheads under the new pact. The two countries are now required under a 2002 deal to hold no more than 2,200 operationally fielded warheads by 2012.

Progress in negotiating a START successor has slowed amid Washington's efforts to remove conventionally armed long-range weapons and disused bomber aircraft from consideration under the new agreement.

The presidents signed off on a reduction of nuclear delivery vehicles to between 500 and 1,100, down from the 1,600 allowed today. Moscow has pressed for cutting to the low end of the spectrum; a potential compromise could allow for 700 to 900 nuclear-capable missiles and bombers on each side, according to former Russian nuclear missile chief Viktor Yesin.

The slowdown in the talks has prompted a new effort by U.S. officials to maintain the present pact and its

critical arms-control monitoring provisions.

A State Department official said the need to ready teams of negotiators from both nations was a major cause for the delay.

"It's been 20 years since we negotiated an agreement of this kind," according to the official.

Although officials remain optimistic that Obama and Medvedev could ink a START replacement by December, efforts to win congressional approval for pact could extend well into 2010. The Obama administration's recent decision to scrap a Bush-era European missile defense proposal could stiffen opposition to a START successor among Republicans, complicating ratification efforts, according to the Post (see related GSN story, today).

The move "makes clear that the administration ignored the input of senators of both parties who warned that linking START and missile defense would be ill-advised," said Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.).

Still, the change in U.S. missile defense policy could give a boost to the ongoing U.S.-Russian talks. "The overall atmospherics will be improved" in the talks as a result of the move, the State Department official said.

Yesin said the likelihood of any agreement being signed by Dec. 5 was only 50 percent. The work could become increasingly difficult should the sides remain apart after the deadline, he said.

"It would have a negative impact on the whole reset of [U.S.-Russian] relations," according to Yesin (Sheridan/Pan, Washington Post, Sept. 21).

The sixth START negotiation session was scheduled to open today in Geneva, RIA Novosti reported. The sides could enter initial discussions this week on the specifics of the new pact, analysts told the news agency.

Russia expects to conduct four or five more START negotiation sessions with the United States before December.

Medvedev yesterday said that the probability of settling on a deal this year was "high enough" (RIA Novosti, Sept. 21).

Moscow will continue to continue to fund the maintenance of its strategic nuclear arsenal as required, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Popovkin said Saturday, according to Interfax.

"We need to develop the strategic nuclear forces to guarantee the existence of the country and protection from attacks. It is our shield," the official said in a radio interview.

"Everyone should know that if someone attacks (Russia) we have something to respond with and, trust me, it will be a hard response," Popovkin said (Interfax, Sept. 19).