Global Security Newswire

In the initial aftermath of a nuclear strike on a major urban area, airborne radiation would place evacuees in greater danger than individuals who remain deep inside buildings or underground areas, Stanford University analysts concluded in a study published last month (see GSN, Sept. 28, 2007).

Congestion along possible evacuation routes would force people attempting to flee the site of a nuclear attack to withstand long periods of exposure to radiation, unless they learn of an impending strike well in advance, United Press International quoted a Society for Risk Analysis statement as saying.

"The logistical challenge of an evacuation appears to be beyond current response capabilities," said management science professor Lawrence Wein, one of the authors of the study.

Past research has indicated that emergency workers would probably need 12 to 48 hours after a nuclear strike to set up exit sites. The U.S. government is likely to need 24 hours to react in a substantive manner, and a full reaction by federal authorities would not be expected in the first 72 hours after an attack.

"Unlike a bioterror or chemical attack, it may not be possible for the government to provide timely advice to the populace after such an event," says the report, which employed complex mathematical calculations in producing its conclusions (United Press International/Spacedaily.com, Sept. 7).