Global Security Newswire

The regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad is attempting to gain access to large amounts of the precursor materials needed to manufacture sarin, a particularly lethal chemical weapon, Wired magazine reported on Thursday, citing anonymous U.S. officials.

Individuals with ties to Damascus have made numerous attempts over the last several months to purchase massive amounts of rubbing alcohol. That chemical and methylphosphonyl difluoride, known as DF, are the two primary ingredients needed to produce sarin.  The U.S. State Department, the CIA, and friendly regional governments have managed to stop a number of these attempted purchases, including an effort to purchase phosphorous compounds that can be utilized to produce DF.

At the same time, the Assad regime is understood to be sitting on a substantial stockpile of 500 metric tons of nerve agent precursor materials that are stored in separated form. They would have to be combined together before use in attack. The precursor agents are understood to be spread out at 25 or more sites.

One possible reason for Syria's apparent interest in constructing new chemical arms might be regime concerns that the older stocks are deteriorating, the magazine reported.

"Damascus has continued its pursuit of chemical weapons despite the damage to its international reputation and the rising costs of evading international export control on chemical weapons materials," according to an August analysis by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

Assad is locked in a bloody 19-month civil war with opposition forces that is estimated to have already resulted in the deaths of more than 30,000 people. Damascus this summer promised the international community it would only use its chemical arsenal to ward off a foreign attack. Some rebels are skeptical about this pledge, believing Assad could still carry out chemical aerial attacks if it appears his regime is on the brink of collapse. Meanwhile, the United States and Syria's neighbors are worried that regime security around the chemical stockpiles could be weakened the longer fighting continues, potentially opening up an opportunity for nonstate actors to acquire the ingredients to produce weapons of mass destruction.

For the time being, though, the Assad regime does not appear close to collapse and military security around its chemical arsenal is assessed by the United States to be strong. 

"Assad is weathering everything the rebels throw at him," one unidentified U.S. official familiar with recent intelligence on the matter said. "Business is continuing as usual. They've been busy little bees."

In its quest to circumvent international sanctions, Syria has used "extensive tactics -- including the use of front companies in third countries -- ... to obscure its efforts to obtain (regulated equipment), as well as other dual-use items, for proliferation purposes," the Australia Group concluded during a recent meeting. The voluntary multinational organization coordinates export controls among member nations with the intent of blocking the global spread of chemical and biological weapons.