Global Security Newswire

North Korea constructed an underground fueling site in recent months at a launch facility that appears to be preparing to test-fire a long-range missile, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Feb. 25).

Use of a below-ground facility would make it easier for Pyongyang to conceal preparations for a missile launch.

South Korean intelligence and defense agencies would not confirm statements from an anonymous high-level official in Seoul to the Dong-a-Ilbo newspaper regarding the fueling facility.

Recent satellite images showed a missile-like object being transported to the Musudan-ri launch site in northeastern North Korea. There has also been an increase in activity at the installation, which was used for the failed 2006 launch of a Taepodong 2 missile.

North Korea said it is preparing to launch a communications satellite into space, while concerned nations suspect the state's intent is to again test the Taepodong 2.

"We expect the North to claim a satellite launch after firing a missile," South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Moon Tae-young said today.

The missile is designed with a range of roughly 4,000 miles, though observers say Pyongyang might fire an improved version that could reach the continental United States. North Korea is not yet believed to be capable of placing a nuclear warhead on its missiles (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press/Time, Feb. 26).

Concerned nations yesterday continued to warn North Korea against launching any rocket, Agence France-Presse reported.

"Satellite-launching technology is the same as ballistic missile technology, and a North Korean satellite launch would help develop ballistic [missile] capability," the French Foreign Ministry said.

"Whether North Korea fires a missile or a satellite, such an act will not be welcomed by the international community. It will not be condoned by the international community," said Park Hyung-joon, a spokesman for South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan met with his Chinese counterpart and said he received an indication that Beijing might try to wave Pyongyang off a launch (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Feb. 25).

China is considered to be North Korea's only real ally. However, it apparently failed to deter the regime from carrying out its October 2006 nuclear test, raising questions about how much influence Beijing has on Pyongyang, the Yonhap News Agency reported (Yonhap News Agency I, Feb. 26).

The threat of sanctions, like those imposed following the 2006 missile and nuclear tests, might also not prove an adequate deterrence, experts told Yonhap.

The United Nations issued weapons-related penalties following the launch of the Taepodong 2 and several shorter-range missiles, then sought to restrict exports of luxury goods to North Korea after the nuclear blast.

"No evidence has been found that U.N. economic sanctions have had any effect on North Korea's trade in luxury goods with its largest trade partner, China," according to a recent report from Marcus Noland, a senior analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

"The sanctions were limited to exports of military and luxury goods, with the definitions of these products and the administration of the sanctions left to individual U.N. members," he added.

Increased coordination among sanctioning nations is needed if Pyongyang is to feel real pain, Noland told Yonhap: "In addition to making it clear in advance that North Korea could be subject to broader trade sanctions, more rigorously applied, one could also look to financial sector sanctions and travel bans" (Yonhap News Agency II, Feb. 25).

Meanwhile, Japanese authorities today raided a company believed to be attempting the illicit export of potential missile manufacturing technology to North Korea, AFP reported.

Toko Boeki allegedly intended to use an intermediary nation for shipping magnetic measuring equipment, according to broadcaster NHK (Agence France-Presse II/NASDAQ.com, Feb. 26).