Global Security Newswire

The United States and Iran should seek "a better understanding of one another" in potential dialogue Washington is pursuing in an attempt to halt Tehran's disputed nuclear operations, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 10).

Clinton reaffirmed the Obama administration's opposition to a nuclear-armed Iran, the Associated Press reported. The United States and its allies have long expressed concern that Iran's uranium enrichment program could produce a key nuclear-weapon ingredient, but the Middle Eastern state insists the effort is aimed strictly at generating fuel for its nascent atomic energy program.

"There is an opportunity for the Iranian government to demonstrate a willingness to unclench their fist and to begin a serious and responsible discussion about a range of matters," Clinton said.

"We still persist in our view that Iran should not obtain nuclear weapons, that it would be a very unfortunate course for them to pursue, and we hope there will be opportunities in the future for us to develop a better understanding of one another and to work out a way of talking that would produce positive results for the people of Iran," she said.

Iran's possible acquisition of longer-range ballistic missiles prompted the previous U.S. administration to plan the deployment of missile defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic, Clinton added. U.S. leaders would "reconsider where we stand" on the project if Iran altered its nuclear and missile policies, "but we are a long, long way from seeing any evidence of a behavior change," she said.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said he would urge the United States to arrange direct talks with Iran as soon as possible in an effort to address the nuclear dispute (Robert Burns, Associated Press/Washington Post, Feb. 11).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday said his government would respond to favorable changes in policy in Washington, the New York Times reported.

“It is clear that change should be fundamental, not tactical, and our people welcome real changes,” he said. “Our nation is ready to hold talks based on mutual respect and in a fair atmosphere.”

Experts debated Iran's intentions. “Generally speaking, Iran favors ties with the United States because falling oil prices have hurt its economy dramatically,” said Saeed Leylaz, a Tehran-based economist and political analyst. “The United States needs to take the first major step. Otherwise Iran cannot go any farther.”

Leylaz advised the United States to seek dialogue with Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on all political decisions.

U.S. relations with Iran could be significantly complicated by the Obama administration's ties with incoming leaders in Israel, where some officials have called for military action against Iranian nuclear sites, one high-level Obama administration source warned last week.

"I could draw you a scenario in which this new combination of players leads to the first real talks with Iran in three decades. ... And I could draw you one in which the first big foreign crisis of the Obama presidency is a really nasty confrontation, either because the Israelis strike or because we won’t let them,” the source said.

Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami's recently announced candidacy in Iran's June presidential election presents another complication; Khatami has built a reputation as a political reformer who might tone down Tehran's inflammatory rhetoric, but U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran undertook significant nuclear-weapon development efforts under his administration (Fathi/Sanger, New York Times, Feb. 11).

Russia expressed support today for Washington's proposal to conduct dialogue with Tehran, Agence France-Presse reported.

"We expect that the United States, considering the fresh approach that seems to be noticeable in regard to Iran, will be able to make a more effective contribution in resolving these questions than in recent years," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

"We attach particular significance to the declared intention of the new administration in Washington to start direct dialogue with Iran," he added. "We're sure this will help the common efforts" of the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany to resolve the nuclear dispute (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Feb. 11).

The United States should pursue Iranian nuclear talks in conjunction with the five other powers rather than pushing for bilateral discussions, three analysts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote last week.

"Nuclear talks with Iran alone are a trap. They would introduce unnecessary division and friction. The U.S. will lose critical leverage if it enters the talks without the support -- and indeed the experience -- of its European allies," Thérèse Delpech, Ariel Levite and George Perkovich wrote.

The United States "should also make every effort to win over Russia and China, since influence over Iran hinges on winning the widest possible international coalition," they wrote. The two Security Council member states have opposed tough punitive measures against Iran in the past.

The experts advocated a setting a time limit on efforts to resolve the nuclear dispute through negotiation.

"Iranian leaders are wary of engaging the U.S. and already hint at the stalling tactics they will use to deflect the new Obama administration. Iranian leaders acknowledged that they used negotiations with Europe earlier to gain time to build nuclear capabilities. The clock is ticking as Iran continues to move toward achieving nuclear weapon capability," they wrote.

The analysts also defended the "dual-track" strategy of offering Iran financial and political benefits in exchange for cooperation while threatening new penalties for continued defiance.

"Stronger sanctions are necessary for the dialogue to succeed," they stated. "But the new administration should find ways to broaden its offers and to make them more attractive including by accepting the Iranian regime. In this respect, [U.S. President] Barack Obama, who has never shared the idea that any nation belongs to an 'axis of evil,' would have more credibility than his predecessor if he proposes direct contact with Tehran or offer security assurances to the regime."

Washington should continue pressuring Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program, they added.

"Enrichment is the essential missing link of Iran's bomb program, at a time when Iran is developing actively its missile capability. Throwing in the towel today would lift the last meaningful obstacle between Iran and the bomb," while encouraging neighboring states to take independent action related to Tehran's nuclear program, they wrote.

Ending efforts to halt the enrichment program would also vindicate Iranian leaders who ignored Security Council resolutions calling for its suspension, they wrote. "UNSC resolutions deserve respect first and foremost by its permanent members and compliance by all. The Obama administration would probably like to strengthen the UNSC in the coming years, not weaken it from the start" (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace release, Feb. 3).