Global Security Newswire

Longtime allies South Korea and the United States late next month are slated to carry out their first bilateral military exercise since North Korea's new ruler, Kim Jong Un, came to power, the Los Angeles Times reported on Wednesday (see GSN, Jan. 26).

The yearly joint Key Resolve exercise is to begin on Feb. 27 and to continue for two weeks.

“We have weighed whether we should go ahead with the exercise or not after North Korean leader [Kim Jong Il's] death at the end of last year,” a South Korean official said in an interview with the JoonAng Ilbo. He indicated  Pyongyang intended to stage maneuvers of its own. “The North’s wintertime drills are continuing and the military threats still persist, so we’ve decided to go ahead with our military exercise as scheduled.”

U.S. and South Korean defense leaders are still working out specifics for the exercise including the number of military personnel that will be involved as well as what potential security incidents to simulate. Last year's exercise involved in excess of 200,000 South Korean personnel and approximately 12,800 U.S. troops.

Pyongyang historically has strongly opposed such drills though it usually keeps its hostility confined to rhetoric. It remains to be seen whether the Kim Jong Un regime will follow suit in its response to the routinely held exercises (John Glionna, Los Angeles Times, Jan. 25).

Seoul and Washington have also scheduled the Foal Eagle training program from March 1 to April 30, Agence France-Presse reported. Roughly 11,000 U.S. troops are expected to join South Korean military personnel in drilling by air, land and sea (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 27).

Separately, the lack of mention U.S. President Obama gave to North Korea in his State of the Union speech this week is seen as underlining the White House's decision to hold back and watch events unfold under the new Kim regime, the Korea Times reported (see GSN, Jan. 25).

"The U.S. is waiting to see stability in North Korea," Korea University international relations specialist Yoo Ho-yeol said. "The transition to Kim Jong Un makes significant progress on the nuclear issue difficult at the moment."

Shortly before the December death of Kim Jong Il, the Obama administration reportedly was in secret discussions on supplying a shipment of food assistance to the impoverished North in exchange for its halting enrichment of uranium, a process that can yield weapon-grade material. Suspension of uranium enrichment has been one of Washington's demands for resuming the six-party talks on North Korean denuclearization, which were last held in December 2008.

Samsung Economic Research Institute analyst Bahng Tae-seop said Obama left North Korea out of his address so as not to give Republican critics an opening to criticize him for insufficient progress on resolving the longstanding nuclear impasse. "It was a matter of benign neglect," Bahng said.

Though Obama did not touch on North Korea, administration diplomats in recent weeks have engaged in a flurry of meetings with regional players China, Japan and South Korea. Washington is concerned Kim Jong Un could seek to improve his domestic standing by ordering a new nuclear test or attacking South Korea (Kim Young-Jin, Korea Times, Jan. 26).