Global Security Newswire

The United States and other Western powers are urging the International Atomic Energy Agency to fully disclose information that could shed light on Iran's alleged nuclear-weapon ambitions, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 25).

The information includes computer files and other records purported to document nuclear-weapon research undertaken by the Middle Eastern state, including high-explosives experiments relevant to nuclear-weapon detonation as well as an effort to modify an Iranian Shahab missile to accommodate a nuclear warhead. At a closed-door meeting in February 2008 in which the agency shared some of the documents with its governing board, IAEA safeguards chief Olli Heinonen said the information was "not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon" (see GSN, Feb. 28, 2008).

Iran, which insists its nuclear ambitions are strictly peaceful, has claimed the documents were falsified.

“What we and all the allies are pressing for is for the full case to be laid out, in public,” a high-level Obama administration official said last week.

“There’s multilateral activity under way to ramp up pressure on Iran,” a European diplomat added, saying the effort involved France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. “It’s not just Israel."

Concerns about perceived bias have turned IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei against calls from within and outside his agency to take a tough stance on Iran, either by publicizing the undisclosed evidence or by sharply critiquing the nation's activities in a quarterly safeguards report due out this week. A high-level European official said the report would include "no bombshells"; still, it might contain new discussion of incriminating evidence that the agency has collected (Sanger/Broad, New York Times, Aug. 26).

"I doubt there will be any movement on this" until Japanese diplomat Yukiya Amano assumes ElBaradei's post in November, one U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal (Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 26).

The Obama administration's push for disclosure of the Iran file reflects growing uncertainty among U.S. leaders over how to pressure Iran as it maintains its refusal to join multilateral negotiations aimed at halting its disputed nuclear activities, according to the Times. Washington and other Western governments have indicated they would would consider new punitive actions if Tehran does not agree to join such talks by the end of September (Sanger/Broad, New York Times).

Delegates from the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany are set to discuss the Iranian nuclear standoff at a meeting in Frankfurt next week. The Security Council has already imposed three rounds of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear work, but Russia and China have resisted tough penalties against the nation.

"Clearly, there's been a concerted effort internationally to impose a time frame on Iran so that the nuclear crisis doesn't drag on. But the U.S. is running up against the reality that Iran isn't cooperating and that China and Russia are only going through the motions on cooperating," said Michael Adler, an Iran analyst at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

The dispute is expected to receive additional attention at next month's meetings of the IAEA governing board, the IAEA General Conference and the Group of 20 nations (Solomon, Wall Street Journal).

A shortage of unrefined uranium "yellowcake" might have forced Iran to stop increasing the count of operational enrichment centrifuges at its Natanz facility roughly three months ago, diplomats told the Associated Press. The enrichment process can be used for nuclear-weapon material, although Tehran has maintained that the effort would only produce nuclear power plant fuel.

An Iranian official denied the alleged yellowcake shortage.

"It is not true," said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iranian ambassador to the U.N. nuclear watchdog. "This is a technical project with its ups and downs. But everything is going according to plan," he told AP.

The U.S. State Department refused to comment on the apparent pause in Iran's enrichment expansion.

"We are very concerned about the refusal of Iran to adhere to its international obligations," spokesman Ian Kelly said, adding that the Obama administration would provide additional comment following publication of the IAEA report (George Jahn, Associated Press/Google News, Aug. 25).

Iran might have slowed expansion of its enrichment work in an effort to turn Beijing and Moscow against further Security Council sanctions, one Western diplomat told Reuters.

"It's hard to see this as anything but a cynical ploy to appear cooperative in the court of public opinion. Sadly, it will probably work," the official said.

"People misinterpret what is probably a technical move by Iran as a political signal. If Iran wants to give us a signal, they'll suspend enrichment, or at least accept the P-5+1 (group) offer to meet," the diplomat added in a reference to China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, Aug. 26).

Meanwhile, a U.S. nonproliferation think tank yesterday published an analysis confirming that a fuel assembly photographed in Iran last year was intended for use in the nation's Arak heavy-water reactor (see GSN, Aug. 12).

The Institute for Science and International Security report also stated that the assembly was a modified version of a reactor component once produced by the Soviet Union.

Iran would have to circumvent international sanctions to obtain equipment necessary for the Arak reactor's operation, the analysis states, adding that it remains uncertain whether Tehran wants to develop a capability to isolate weapon-grade plutonium at Arak or elsewhere (Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire, Aug. 26).