Nuclear Security Implications of AI and Emerging Technologies: A FutureSafe Analysis of Risks and Opportunities

Nuclear Security Implications of AI and Emerging Technologies: A FutureSafe Analysis of Risks and Opportunities was motivated by the vision for applying technology to reduce catastrophic nuclear, biological, and other advanced technological threats to human civilization.

It builds on conversations among NTI’s Science and Technology Advisory Group about how rapid commercial innovation could disrupt nuclear security in ways that might undermine a nuclear modernization approach focused on replacement of Cold War legacy nuclear arsenals. Specifically, these conversations raised concern that keeping a “human in the loop” of nuclear command and control decisions may be a necessary but insufficient approach to maintaining nuclear security against a rapidly changing background of artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies that can undermine reliability of the information on which humans make decisions.

The study team conducted interviews with 32 leading experts on nuclear security and technological innovation to identify risks and opportunities that AI and other technologies emerging from the commercial sector could pose for nuclear security. The report describes the range of responses provided in the interviews; it is not a consensus product and does not reflect the views of any single interviewee.

Interviewees provided rich and diverse responses, from which the team identified the following three risks and three opportunities.

Risks

• Novel and newly expanded vulnerabilities of nuclear forces, particularly via attacks on the people responsible for nuclear security enabled by AI, big data, and networks
• New pathways to nuclear escalation
• Increased risk of nuclear proliferation and terrorism

Opportunities 

• Improved warning confidence
• Deterrence resilience and arms race stability
• New pathways to cooperative security

The study concludes that convergences of AI and other emerging commercial technologies pose novel risks and opportunities for nuclear security, and that, as a result, nuclear modernization should emphasize innovation rather than replacement of Cold War legacy architectures and systems.

The report recommends that Congress (a) establish a National Security Commission on Nuclear Security Innovation and (b) create innovative vehicles for engaging cutting-edge commercial innovators in developing new capabilities and architectures that manage the risks and develop the opportunities that new technologies offer.