NTI Experts Address Iran’s Nuclear Future

The 2026 war with Iran has raised urgent questions about the future of the country’s nuclear program. On March 26, NTI President and CEO Christine Wormuth sat down with Vice President Scott Roecker and Deputy Vice President Eric Brewer from NTI’s Nuclear Materials Security program for a webinar, “Iran’s Nuclear Future: Implications of the 2026 War,” covering the conflict’s ramifications for international security and options to mitigate risks.

The panel painted a stark picture of what the war may mean for Iran’s nuclear program, the risks of proliferation, and the wider nonproliferation regime. “There is a real need to make sure that when the shooting stops, the elements of the Iranian nuclear program are secured and are not getting loose and falling into the hands of unknown actors,” Wormuth said.

Brewer explained that military force alone will not end Iran’s nuclear plans. “The nuclear program is going to loom large as this conflict proceeds, and as part of any deescalation or resolution, we’re going to have to continue to contend with what remains on the ground,” he said. Noting that the Islamic Republic will likely remain in power, Wormuth cautioned, “There are a lot of reasons to believe that the regime coming out the other side of this may have more incentives to covertly race for the bomb.”

With the fog of war making it difficult to understand the facts on the ground and predict how the conflict will unfold, the discussion focused on analyzing potential scenarios and identifying actions to prevent catastrophe. These included a U.S. operation to retrieve nuclear material, the IAEA’s role in Iran, and the post-war political dynamic between Washington and Tehran. The panelists agreed that the stakes are high and the answers will not come easily. “Things aren’t going to get easier once the military strikes end,” Roecker said. “What happens next is going to be incredibly important.”