Statement by NTI on the U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran

Today, the United States began a major military campaign targeting Iran’s political leadership, nuclear program, and conventional military forces, with the goal of collapsing the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

It is too soon to predict the trajectory of this war and its consequences. Whether or not the United States and Israel succeed in removing the regime, the ongoing major combat operations introduce serious nuclear security and proliferation risks. Iran likely retains hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium that can be used in a bomb, stockpiles of advanced centrifuges, and other sensitive capabilities.  If the regime collapses or is overthrown and security breaks down, Iran’s nuclear material and technology could be stolen by non-state actors—or simply go missing. Iran’s technical experts would also be attractive hires for aspiring proliferators.

Washington will face a number of challenges because of this war in the coming weeks. One of the most consequential challenges is the possibility that Iran’s nuclear materials and technology are no longer secured if the regime collapses and instability follows. It is imperative that the United States has a comprehensive, actionable plan to prevent this scenario. Whether or not there is regime change in Iran, the international community should insist that Iran allow the return of international inspectors immediately after the cessation of military operations to begin the arduous process of accounting for nuclear materials.